000 AXNT20 KNHC 081738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds to 40 kt are ongoing over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Mexico near the Veracruz area. Seas are 10-15 ft. The gales are a result of the strong pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure inland over Mexico and a frontal boundary along the W Yucatan Peninsula. Later today, gale force winds will diminish to 25 to 30 kt with 10-14 ft seas. Winds and seas are forecast to diminish further overnight and tomorrow as high pressure builds south. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues to 04N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N16W to 04N32W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 18W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning. At 1500 UTC, a 1014 mb low pressure is centered at 24N86W. Recent scatterometer data depicted a small area of gale force winds from 24N to 25N between 85.5W and 87W, likely associated with convection in the same area. Seas are currently 6-8 ft near this low. Also at 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from Chokoloskee, Florida to the aforementioned low pressure, then over the Yucatan Peninsula and SE Bay of Campeche to 18N93W. Scattered showers are noted near the frontal boundary and in the NE Gulf. North of 26N, moderate to locally fresh N winds prevail. South of 26N to the stationary front, fresh to strong NE to N winds are noted. In the Bay of Campeche, N winds are strong to near gale force outside of the Gale Warning area. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 26N, along the Gulf Coast of Florida, and across the Straits of Florida, 5-7 ft between 24N and 26N east of 85W, and 7-12 ft in the south-central Gulf and Bay of Campeche outside of the Gale Warning area. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will weaken and move into the Yucatan Channel late today or tonight. The front will be SE of the area by Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf by early Wed as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf through Fri. Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the northwest Gulf by late Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer and surface observations show gentle to moderate trades over the eastern and central sections of the basin, with light and variable winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are moving over the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Some of these clouds are currently affecting the Cayman Islands. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late today or tonight then extend from west- central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the W Atlantic, the earlier cold front has stalled and is now stationary, extending from 31N73W to West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers are noted along and north of the boundary. Gentle to moderate NE winds in the east Atlantic veer to SE west of 70W ahead of the front. Weak 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 26N34W. Seas are 6-10 ft in N swell north of 28N between 50W and 58W. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 3-6 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the stalled front will start moving eastward on Wed as a weak low pressure develops along it north of the northern Bahamas, and moves to the northeast. The front will stall again from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas late Thu into Fri, before lifting north of the area as a warm front on Sat. $$ Mahoney