000 AXNT20 KNHC 080505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1017 mb low pressure is located near 24N87W and a cold front extends into the Bay of Campeche as of 0300 UTC. Meanwhile, a 1031 mb high pressure is centered over northern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient persists over the western Gulf, resulting in strong to gale-force winds occurring over a good portion of the central and western Gulf. The gale- force winds are present in the offshore waters of Veracruz as confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass and surface observations. Seas are 12-16 ft W of 94W and S of 24N, building up to near 19 ft by early this morning in the SW Gulf. Winds will decrease below gale force Tuesday afternoon. Rough seas will abate Wednesday morning in the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Channel. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 04N21W to 05N33W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 03S to 07N and E of 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning. A stationary front extends from SW Florida to the 1017 mb low pressure located near 24N87W and a cold front then continues from the center of the low to the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is interacting with an upper level trough to produce a large area of cloudiness and scattered showers that covers most of the Gulf. However, the SE Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong NE winds occurring north of the stationary front to 29N and between the west coast of Florida and the low pressure. Fresh to strong N winds are also found in the northern and NW Gulf. Seas are 2-5 ft E of 87W, NW Gulf and E Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned front is forecast to reach from near Lake Okeechobee in south-central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Tue morning, and extend across the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel on Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf by early Wed as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf through Fri. Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the northwest Gulf by late Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fairly tranquil weather conditions are present across the Caribbean Sea. Pockets of moisture hitch a ride in the trades and generate isolated showers, especially in the eastern and western portions of the basin. The trough affecting the eastern Greater Antilles has weakened but some isolated showers are seen on satellite imagery still affecting Hispaniola. Fresh to strong trades are occurring in the eastern and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds being found in the offshore waters of NW Colombia. Seas in these areas are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late Tue then extend from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from an intensifying storm off Cape Hatteras to just north of the NW Bahamas near 28N79W, where it transitions into a stationary front that reaches into southern Florida. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. Latest satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found W of 60W. Seas in the region are 4-7 ft, including 6-7 ft near the eastern Bahamas. Farther east, a broad 1012 mb low pressure located near 24N38W continues to produce scattered and weak showers over the eastern quadrant. The high pressure over the NE Atlantic has moved eastward toward France, resulting in a weakening of the pressure gradient over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds between the low pressure and the coast of Africa. Seas in the area described are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent. For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extending from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida will briefly stall from 30N73W to the northern Bahamas late on Tue, then move eastward on Wed as a weak low pressure develops across the frontal boundary and moves to the northeast. The front will stall again from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas late Thu into Fri. $$ DELGADO