000 AXNT20 KNHC 072330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Feb 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force NW to N winds are currently occurring behind a cold front in the western Gulf offshore of Tampico. The gale force winds will migrate to the Veracruz offshore waters tonight. Seas will build to 14 to 16 ft off Veracruz by tonight. Winds will decrease below gale force Tuesday afternoon. Rough seas will abate Wednesday morning in the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Channel. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 11N19W. The ITCZ continues from 11N19W to 06N23W to 05N30W to 04N42W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection extends from the equator to 07.5N between 06W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning. A 1018 mb low pressure is near 26N88W. A cold front extends SW from the low to 23N95W to 19N95W. A stationary front extends E from the low to Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Scattered moderate rainshowers are present from the front to 30N between 87W-94W. Another area of scattered showers and isolated tstorms is noted from 24N-26N between 85W-87W. Strong N winds are occurring north and west of the cold front, mainly south of 27N, with gale force winds occurring offshore Tampico. Seas are 6 to 11 ft in this area, highest offshore Tampico. Moderate to fresh N winds are in the NW Gulf with 2 to 5 ft seas. Mainly moderate wind speeds are south and east of the front, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the front is forecast to reach from near Lake Okeechobee Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Tue morning, and extend across the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel on Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf by early Wed as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper-level trough that had been enhancing rainfall across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic for the last few days has finally weakened. Isolated showers and tstorms are still currently occurring over the Dominican Republic. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh NE to E winds over the NE basin, to the north of a shear line, which extends from 15N61W to 17N70W at 18Z. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are likely occurring in that area. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate trades are elsewhere east of 75W with 3-4 ft seas. Mainly gentle winds are west of 75W with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late Tue then extend from west-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N76W to Stuart, FL near 27N80W. A fresh breeze is noted north of 30N on both sides of the front with 6-7 ft seas. Moderate winds extend from 28N-30N and west of 72W, with gentle winds over the NW Bahamas, due to a surface ridge which extends from a 1023 mb high near 29N63W. Fresh trades are likely present from the SE Bahamas to Puerto Rico. Seas are 6-7 ft to the east of the SE Bahamas. In the central Atlantic a 1011 mb low pressure system located near 24N39W extends a surface trough to the southern Windward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-28N between 28W-38W in an area of fresh winds. Fresh winds are also north of the low pressure. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds are evident N of 27N and between the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara and 25W, enveloping the Canary Islands. These winds are generating an area of 7-9 ft seas west of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will move slowly eastward across the area tonight into early Tue. The front will briefly stall from 30N73W to the northern Bahamas late on Tue, then move eastward on Wed as a low pressure develops across the frontal boundary and moves NE. The front will stall again from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas late Thu into Fri. $$ Hagen