000 AXNT20 KNHC 071648 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Feb 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Winds behind a cold front in the western Gulf will increase to gale force tonight between Tampico and Veracruz. Seas will build as high as 16 ft off Veracruz by tonight. Winds will decrease below gale force Tuesday afternoon. Rough seas will abate Wednesday morning in the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Channel. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W along the coast of Sierra Leone and continues through 03N30W to the Brazilian coast near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection extends from the equator to 07N between 10W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front has formed across the central and western Gulf. Buoys are reporting a strong northerly breeze behind the front with building seas currently 4-6 ft. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the front with a moderate breeze and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and reduced visibility are reported along and behind the front. For the forecast, a frontal boundary over the western Gulf will bring gale force winds near the Tampico area late today and tonight and near Veracruz region tonight and Tue. Seas are forecast to build to 14-15 ft with these winds. This pattern will also support fresh to strong winds and rough seas elsewhere across the western Gulf through tonight, and across the south-central and southeast Gulf through late Tue. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf by early Wed as weaker high pressure settles over the northern Gulf through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergent flow aloft and a nearby trough continues to support shower activity across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A small area of strong NE winds are observed along the coast of Colombia, generating 5-7 ft seas in the Colombian Basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through mid week, pulsing to strong off Colombia mainly at night. A weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late Tue then stall over the far northwest Caribbean Wed and Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N78W to West Palm Beach, FL. A fresh breeze is noted on both sides of the front with 6-9 ft seas. In the central Atlantic a 1013 mb low pressure system located near 25N39W extends a surface trough to the southern Leeward Islands. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are noted north and east of the low in an area of fresh winds. In the eastern Atlantic, strong NE winds are evident N of 25N and between the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara and 25W, enveloping the Canary Islands. These winds are generating an area of 8-10 ft seas west of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure located near 32N79W to south Florida. The low will lift northward this morning and drag the cold front across the area. Then, the front will briefly stall from 30N73W to the northern Bahamas late on Tue, the move eastward on Wed as another low pressure develops across the frontal boundary and moves NE. $$ FLYNN