000 AXNT20 KNHC 060919 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Feb 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will form over the northern Gulf late tonight into early Mon, between high pressure west of the area and low pressure moving from the east coast of Florida toward the Carolina coast. The gradient will be tight enough to support near-gale to gale force winds Mon night into Tue over the western Gulf off the coast of Mexico, from Tampico to Veracruz. Seas may build as high as 16 ft off Veracruz by Tue morning. Winds and seas will subside through mid week as the low pressure lifts farther to the north and high pressure builds over the area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The western end of a modest monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau at 12N16W to 11N20W with no significant weather nearby. Further south, an ITCZ extends from 03N11W through 03N25W to the coast of Brazil near EQ48W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Equator to 04N between 10W and 25W, and from 01S to 03N between 38W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front reaches from near Key West, Florida to Cozumel, Mexico. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite passes indicate mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds across the southern Gulf, south of 22N. Altimeter satellite passes over the past several hours confirm seas are still 8 to 11 ft south of 22N west of 85W in lingering northerly swell, with the highest seas in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf. A dry airmass has settled in over the basin north of the front, and no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. For the forecast, will dissipate through late today, and the fresh winds and rough seas over the south-central and southeast Gulf will diminish today as high pressure builds over the region. Another cold front will develop over the northern Gulf late today or tonight and move across the basin through Tue, bringing another round of winds to gale force to the west-central and southwest Gulf Mon night and Tue. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin mid week as high pressure again builds over the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergent flow aloft related an upper low centered over Puerto Rico is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. There is ample low level moisture still in place across the islands, related to an earlier frontal boundary and then later a shear line extending over the region. Winds have largely diminished over this area, and gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted, except for a small area of fresh NE winds off the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic. Recent buoy observations and altimeter data show NE swell to 8 ft is still moving into Atlantic passages of the northeast Caribbean. Farther west, recent ship observations confirmed fresh to strong NE winds are still active through the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE winds are pulsing off the southern coast of Hispaniola near Cabo Beata, and off Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena. Ship observations are also indicating fresh NE winds near a stationary front in the Yucatan Channel, where a few showers and thunderstorms are active. Seas are 7 to 8 ft off Colombia, 6 to 7 ft in the Windward Passage and near Cabo Beata, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft in the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue to support pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward passage through tonight. The large NE swell dominating the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands will gradually diminish through tonight. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late Tue then stall over the far northwest Caribbean Wed and Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A front extending from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys is becoming stationary. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass from 0130 UTC indicated fresh to locally strong NE winds north of the front. Regional buoy observations also hint that seas are 8 to 10 ft north of the front. 1021 mb high pressure is centered east of the front near 29N66W. Farther east, a broad deep-layer low is centered near 28.5N46W, with an estimated pressure of 1014 mb. A scatterometer pass from near 01 UTC showed fresh to strong SE winds on the northeast quadrant of this low, between the low center and high pressure northeast of the Azores. A band of moderate to fresh NE winds persists between the low pressure and the 1021 mb high to the west, with 7 to 8 ft seas reaching as far as the northeast Caribbean in NE swell. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds are evident north of the Canary Island, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 15N over the deep tropics. For the forecast west of 65W, weak low pressure will form along the front off east central Florida later today, then lift northward and drag the western portion of the front north of the area Mon. Another cold front will follow off the northeast Florida coast late Mon, then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through mid week. $$ Christensen