000 AXNT20 KNHC 051031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds will persist off Veracruz Mexico and the far southwest Gulf of Mexico through the morning. 1040 mb high pressure over northern Mexico is supporting the gales, along with strong winds across the southern Gulf. Seas over the far southwest Gulf may be reaching as high as 19 ft. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force through this morning. Winds and seas will continue to subside through tonight as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward across the northern Gulf. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains mostly over West Africa. An ITCZ stretches westward from 03N15W to 00N35W to 02N45W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 03N between 12W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection also noted from 01N to 04n between 40W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on an ongoing Gale Warning. A cold front extends southwestward from Sarasota, Florida to 22N88W in the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. in addition to the gale force winds and attendant seas over the southwest Gulf, buoy observations and satellite derived data indicate fresh to strong northerly winds and seas in excess of 8 ft west of the front and south of 26N. However, winds and seas are starting to diminish across the northern Gulf, with moderate to fresh offshore flow. A few showers and thunderstorms are active east of the front over the far southeast Gulf. For the forecast, the front will stall across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel tonight, then dissipate through late Sun. Gale force winds over the southwest Gulf off Veracruz will persist through the morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Sun as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front will develop over the northern Gulf late Mon and move across the basin through mid week, possibly bringing another round of winds to gale force to the west-central and southwest Gulf Mon night and Tue. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin by Wed night as high pressure builds over the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A small upper level low is centered just south of Puerto Rico. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast of the upper low is support a few showers along and mainly north of the Virgin Islands. This pattern is also supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms farther south near 15N65W along a shear line reaching from east of the Leeward Islands to the east central Caribbean. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage, as well as fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are likely off the southern coast of the Dominican Republic as well. Moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are near 9 ft off Colombia, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft over the remaining areas of the Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward passage through Sun night. Moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Large NE swell will dominate the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by mid week then stall over the far northwest Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from off the Carolina coast to just north of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to occasionally strong NW winds follow the front, with seas building to 8 ft. Ahead of the front, a wedge of high pressure reaches from northeast of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Farther to the east, 1015 mb low pressure is centered near 23.5N47W, along a frontal boundary reaching from 31N38W to 18N55W, then continuing on as a shear line to the Leeward Islands. A large area of fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 12 ft seas is evident in various buoy observations and earlier satellite derived data between the low pressure and the wedge of high pressure to the west. South of 15N in the deep tropics, fresh trade winds and seas to 8 to 9 ft in NE swell are noted. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted east of 35W. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front off Florida will reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas tonight. Weak low pressure will form along the front off east central Florida Sun night, then drag the western portion of the front north of the area Mon as the low moves toward the Carolina coast. Another cold front will follow off the northeast Florida coast late Mon, then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through mid week. $$ Christensen