000 AXNT20 KNHC 050000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 05 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Very strong high pressure is building surging southward over the western Gulf and over Mexico in the wake of a cold front and the associated northerly flow is advecting a cold air mass across these waters. The resultant tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure to the SE near a cold front is inducing gale- force NW to N winds over the SW Gulf off Veracruz, Mexico and strong to near gale-force over the rest of the western Gulf waters. Latest altimeter data passes shows seas of 10-15 ft in the western part of the Gulf S of 26N W of 94W, and 8-12 ft seas elsewhere W of the front N of 26N W of 87W. The gale-force winds off Veracruz are forecast to continue through Sat morning, then diminish to strong speeds Sat afternoon. The cold front will become stationary over the far SE Gulf by late Sat allowing for conditions in the NW Gulf to diminish. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W to 05N16W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm S of the trough between 10W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 16W-24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on an ongoing Gale Warning. As of 21Z, a cold front extends from Apalachee Bay southwestward to the NW Yucatan Peninsula and extreme southeastern Mexico. Atlantic high pressure extends WSW to the far eastern Gulf. Satellite imagery shows a blanket of low-level clouds covering the Gulf to the W of the cold front. The cold front clearly delineates the leading edge of this cloud cover. Areas of drizzle/rain are underneath these clouds. Scattered showers are mainly N of 27N between the front and 93W. Reduced visibilities are possible with the precipitation activity. Seas W of the front are in the 8-12 ft range, except for higher seas of 10-15 ft S of 26N and W of 94W. Gentle to moderate southerly flow around the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure ridging that extends to the eastern Gulf is present to the E of the front. Seas over this part of the Gulf are in the 3-6 ft range. As for the forecast, the cold front will reach from Tampa, Florida to Merida, Mexico tonight, then become stationary from the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico by Sat night. Gale-force and strong winds over western Gulf in the wake of the front will diminish during the weekend as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the far SW Gulf Mon through Tue, possibly supporting winds to gale-force by late on Mon or on Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from 18N60W westward to across Leeward Islands and southwestward to central Caribbean to near 16N72W. An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to an elongated upper-level low noted on water vapor imagery to be just N of Puerto Rico near 19N67W. The trough extends from the upper-level low southwestward to near 15N71W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen from 17N to 20N between 62W-67w, including the Leeward Islands and portions of Puerto Rico and surrounding waters. This activity is presently increasing as it is under favorable upper-level conditions provided by the aforementioned upper- level low and trough. Otherwise, patches of low-level moisture along with isolated showers are moving westward across sections of the basin E of 83W and from 14N to 16N. Fair weather conditions are present elsewhere under subsidence and dry sinking air aloft. The gradient associated to Atlantic high pressure is supporting fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia, where seas are peaking to 8 ft. Similar winds are near southern Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trade wind are elsewhere, except for generally light to gentle NE to E trade winds to the W of 81W. Seas elsewhere are in the 3-6 ft range, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft S of 11N between Colombia and Panama, 5-7 ft N of 15N and between 64W-80W and lower seas of 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and also N of 18N W of 85W. As for the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will maintain little change to the fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward passage through tonight. The trade winds in the Windward Passage will diminish thereafter into early next week. The moderate to fresh trade winds over the remainder of the basin will remain through the weekend, and the trade winds W of 81W will also remain about the same through the weekend. Large NE swell will dominate the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands through Sun, then slowly subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N41W to low pressure near 23N49W 1014 mb, and continues southwestward to 18N60W, where it transitions to a dissipating front well into the central Caribbean. A well pronounced upper-level trough extends from near 31N48W southwestward to 25N56W and to an upper-level low near 19N67W. The trough continues from the low southwestward to the central Caribbean Sea. Upper-level divergence E of this trough is supporting a large area of moderate rain with embedded scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms N of 26N and E of the cold front to near 35W. A second cold front extends from a 1016 mb near 29N49W to 26N48W and to 22N54W to 22N60W and to 22N65W. Isolated showers are possible along and near the front, and also with the low. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong N to NE winds to the N of this front. Seas are in the range of 12-14 ft N of the front and W to 53W due to a N to NE swell. Per latest altimeter data passes, seas are in the range of 8-12 ft N of the front between 53W-65W also due to a N to NE swell. In the far eastern Atlantic areas, a surface trough extends from 31N17W to 26N17W and to 19N20W. Isolated showers are near the northern part of the trough. Another surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low near 32N21W, SSW to 28.5N24W and NW to near 32N31W. Isolated showers are near the trough. Another surface trough is over the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Africa from Sierra Leone northward. Latest scatterometer data passes depict generally moderate to fresh N to NE winds outside the wind conditions associated to the the aforementioned cold fronts, with the exception of fresh S to SW winds N of 27N W of 77W. Seas elsewhere from those described above with the fronts are in the 4-7 ft range. As for the forecast W of 65W, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, and reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas Sat night. Weak low pressure will form along the front off east central Florida Sun night, then drag the western portion of the front north of the area Mon as the low moves toward the Carolina coast. Another cold front will follow off the northeast Florida coast late Mon, then become stationary and dissipate from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through Tue night. $$ Aguirre