000 AXNT20 KNHC 041025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Pensacola, Florida to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed a large area of fresh to strong NW to N winds across the western Gulf. Winds are likely reaching gale force off Veracruz. The gales are expected to persist off Veracruz through early Sun with seas building to 17 ft. Winds and seas will diminish thereafter through the early part of the week the front stalls over the Yucatan Channel and high pressure builds across the northern Gulf. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The western end of a monsoon trough passes just S of the Sierra Leone-Liberia border to 04N17W. Then the ITCZ continues from 04N17W through 00N37W to the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 70 nm from either side of these features. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 08W and 15W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. Light to gentle southerly breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident east of the front extending from Pensacola, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm east of the front north of 26N. For the forecast, a cold front extending from Pensacola, Florida to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico will reach from Tampa, Florida to Merida, Mexico Fri night, then stall from the Straits of Florida to Cancun Mexico by Sat night. Gale force winds over the southwest Gulf off Veracruz will persist through early Sat. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Sun as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the far southwest Gulf Mon and Tue, possibly supporting winds to gale force by late Mon or Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and then to the south of the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active north of 16N and east of 70W. High pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia where seas are building to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere, with pulses to 25 kt off the coast of central Honduras. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri night. Moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds will remain over the Windward Passage diminishing into early next week. Large NE swell will dominate the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands through late Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the N central Atlantic across 31N40W to a 1015 mb low pressure center near 23N50W. It then turns west- southwestward as a cold front to near the Virgin Islands. Recent buoy observations along with various scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes over the past several hours indicates a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds west of the front, becoming SE to S off the northeast coast of Florida. Seas are 8 to 12 ft west of the front over open waters in NE swell. Scattered showers and few thunderstorms are noted from 19N to 21N between 60W and 65W. Farther south, fresh trade winds with seas to 8 ft are evident south of 15N west of 35W. Elsewhere broad ridging is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, and reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas Sat night. Weak low pressure will form along the front off east central Florida Sun, then pull the western portion of the front north of the area Mon as the low moves toward the Carolina coast. Another cold front will follow off the northeast Florida coast late Mon, then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through Tue night. $$ Christensen