000 AXNT20 KNHC 010941 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 01N33W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the ITCZ west of 22W and extending 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ west of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak low pressure has formed off the Texas coast near 28N94W This system is causing numerous showers and thunderstorms in the NW gulf and along the Texas gulf coast. This system is generating a strong breeze and rough seas up to 10 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a fresh to strong southeasterly breeze and moderate seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE return flow will continue over the western Gulf with building seas due to a weak surface low pressure that formed along the coast of Texas. Thereafter, fresh to occasionally strong SE to S winds will spread across much of the Gulf through mid-week as the high pressure moves NE of the basin. The next cold front is expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing another round of strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas across the western Gulf Thu night and Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure near Florida is maintaining a tight pressure gradient between the high and the low pressure over Colombia. This is generating strong NE winds extending from the Windward Passage to Jamaica and north of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong winds are also noted south of Cuba. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail. Seas are 4-6 ft in the western Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the eastern basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue across the Windward Passage and off Colombia, especially at night, through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through Thu night. Similar winds are expected in the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu night. Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high pressure has entered the subtropical western Atlantic. Buoys are now reporting a light to gentle breeze and slight seas north of West Palm Beach. South of 27N, this same feature is generating a moderate to fresh easterly breeze impacting the Florida Straits and Old Bahama Channel. A cold front extends from a weak area of low pressure near 30N56W to 20N62W. Seas ranged between 8 to 10 ft behind the front. Scattered moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms is noted along the front. Farther east, a 1015 mb cut-off low pressure near 27N33W is generating scattered moderate convection extending roughly 210 nm in the N and E quadrant. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, ridging from the Azores high dominates the pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE. Moderate seas in the 4 to 8 ft range prevail across the region. For the forecast W of 65W, moderate to fresh winds will remain over the southern Bahamas and the Windward Passage tonight through the end of the week over the region. Large seas in the wake of the front will gradually subside E of the Bahamas by tonight. Trade winds will increase S of 25N Wed as the pressure gradient increases. Looking ahead, a front over the central Atlantic may push fresh to strong E winds over the waters east of 73W Thu into Fri. Seas will build NE of the Bahamas Wed night into Fri, in accordance with the increasing winds with a new approaching swell from the N to NE Thu through the upcoming weekend. $$ Torres