000 AXNT20 KNHC 010413 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ west of 22W and extending 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ west of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak low pressure has formed off the Texas coast near 28N96W This system is causing numerous showers and thunderstorms in the NW gulf and along the Texas gulf coast. This system is generating a strong breeze and rough seas up to 10 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a fresh to strong southeasterly breeze and moderate seas. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SE to S winds will spread across much of the Gulf through mid-week as the high pressure moves NE of the basin. The next cold front is expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing another round of strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas across the western gulf Thu night and Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure near Florida is maintaining the pressure gradient with a low over Colombia generating strong NE winds extending from the Windward Passage to Jamaica and fresh to locally strong winds south of Cuba. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail. Seas are 4-6 ft in the western Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the eastern basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue across the Windward Passage and off Colombia, especially at night, through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through Wed night. Similar winds are expected in the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu night. Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high pressure from the Gulf of Mexico has entered the subtropical western Atlantic tonight causing conditions to improve off the N Florida coast. Buoys are now reporting a light to gentle breeze and slight seas north of West Palm Beach. South of 27N, this same feature is generating a moderate to fresh easterly breeze impacting the Florida Straits and Old Bahama Channel. A stationary front extending from 31N55W to Hispaniola remains in place with a fresh NE breeze to the west and strong SW winds observed roughly 180 nm east of the front along a surface trough. Rough seas up to 12 ft are observed with 8 ft seas extending as far south as 17N near the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms is noted along the surface trough. Farther east, a 1019 mb cut-off low pressure near 26N34W is generating scattered moderate convection extending roughly 210 nm in all directions. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, ridging from the Azores high dominates the pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE. Moderate seas in the 4 to 8 ft range prevail across the region. For the forecast W of 65W, the conditions associated with the stationary front will continue through the end of the week over that region. Large seas in the wake of the front will gradually subside E of the Bahamas tonight. Trade winds will increase S of 25N Wed as the pressure gradient increases. Looking ahead, a front over the central Atlantic may push fresh to strong E winds over the waters east of 73W Thu into Fri. Seas will build NE of the Bahamas Wed night into Fri, in accordance with the increasing winds, with a new approaching swell from the N to NE Thu through the upcoming weekend. $$ FLYNN