000 AXNT20 KNHC 302349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 03N30W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 05N between 05W and 16W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 08N between 18W and 41W, and from 01S to 03N W of 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong surface high pressure dominates the Gulf waters being anchored by a 1027 mb high near 27N89W and a 1026 mb high near 28N83W. This is supporting light to gentle variable winds across most of the basin, except for the far western gulf or W of 94W where moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are noted. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are observed over the NE gulf coastal waters. Seas across the area are mainly 3 to 4 ft, except in the Yucatan channel where seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, the high center currently located over the north-central Gulf will move eastward on Mon, then a ridge will persist across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf tonight into Mon morning. These winds will spread eastward across the Gulf region through Thu as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico. The next cold front is expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing another round of gale force northerly winds and building seas across the western Gulf possibly Thu night and Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from Haiti to southern Nicaragua offshore waters. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front, except between the front and the coast of Nicaragua where northerly fresh to strong prevail with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Seas are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are funneling across the Windward Passage with seas to 6 ft. A weaker pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate on Mon. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage, mainly at night, through Wed night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are also expected near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, Mon night through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches from 31N55W SW to the N of Hispaniola where it stalls SW to the Nicaragua offshore waters in the Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and large seas to 11 ft persist W of the front to 76W, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh SW winds are N of 30N off the NE coast of Florida to 78W with seas to 6 ft. Fresh to strong winds are occurring near the coast of Morocco with seas up to 7 ft associated with a weak low captured by the afternoon scatterometer data. Otherwise, the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores high that extends a ridge to nearly 15N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in a large region of moderate NE to E winds with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range. For the forecast W of 65W, the front will become nearly stationary from 25N65W to Haiti on Mon, then move across the SE waters Tue through Wed while dissipating. Large seas behind the front will persist E of the Bahamas through Mon night. An increase in the pressure gradient across the region is expected to bring fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas toward the end of the week. $$ Ramos