000 AXNT20 KNHC 300003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jan 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N66W SW to the Turks and Caicos Islands across the eastern tip of Cuba to southern Honduras. Near gale to gale force W to NW winds are behind the front N of 27N to 74W with seas of 13 to 20 ft. However, fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are affecting the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank as well as the Straits of Florida. Conditions will begin to improve late tonight into Sun morning as winds become gentle to moderate across the area. Higher seas will continue through Monday, and subside by Tuesday. Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to 03N14W. The ITCZ then continues from 03N14W to 03N27W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 07W and 28W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 05N between 34W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong ridge extends from the southern United States to the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in dry continental air to envelop the region. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are across the eastern half of the Gulf with seas to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also in the SW Gulf with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf region through at least Mon. Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the area from W to E tonight into Sun morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds will set up over the western Gulf Sun night into Mon. A frontal system will then move off the Texas coast by Mon night and track across the northern Gulf through Tue. Expect increasing southerly winds across the central and eastern Gulf Mon night and Tue due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern half of the Gulf and the above mentioned low. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Thu. Gale conditions are possible behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong cold front extends from eastern Cuba SW across Jamaica to southern Honduras followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere ahead of the front with seas in the 3 to 4 ft range. Isolated showers are occurring across the Mona Passage. Fair weather conditions are elsewhere. For the forecast, the front is forecast to reach from the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua tonight and from Haiti to southern Nicaragua by Sun night while weakening. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Windward Passage through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a gale warning. A cold front extends from 31N66W SW to the Turks and Caicos Islands across the eastern tip of Cuba to southern Honduras. Near gale to gale force W to NW winds are behind the front N of 27N to 74W with seas of 13 to 20 ft. However, fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are affecting the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank as well as the Straits of Florida. Strong surface ridging covers the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters, thus providing moderate NE to E winds winds and seas to 8 ft N of 20N. Trade winds of similar wind speeds are across the tropical waters S of 20N. For the forecast W of 65W, as the front continues to push eastward tonight, winds will diminish below gale force. Fresh to strong winds will persist on either side of the front through Sun morning but large seas will continue E of the Bahamas through early next week. $$ Ramos