000 AXNT20 KNHC 280537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, then race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon and spread south to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within the strongest winds. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the start of next week. Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml, for more details. Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.A., and bring strong to near gale force winds to much of the SW N Atlantic basin Fri night and Sat. Gale winds are likely north of 27N Sat, with the sea heights building to near 20 feet. These conditions will dissipate on Sun. Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 02N25W and 01N31W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 27W, and from 04N southward from 43W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 13W and 20W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale-force wind warning. A surface trough is off the coast of Mexico from 21N to 25N along 96W/97W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered to scattered rainshowers, are to the north of the line that runs from the Straits of Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly moderate winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. A surface trough from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel will drift SE and dissipate gradually tonight. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Friday morning and sweep across the basin, exiting by Friday night. Strong to near gale- force winds and building seas can be expected for most of the basin through Saturday. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon, and spread S to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within the strongest winds. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the start of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough passes through the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, into the Yucatan Channel. Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 80W westward. A surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to 17N76W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16N to the SE Bahamas between 70W and 80W. Scattered rainshowers are between: the line that extends from Haiti to the coast of Panama that is along 80W, and the line that extends from SE Cuba to E Honduras; and from 70W eastward. Strong winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 78W. Moderate winds are within 260 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 79W. Moderate wind speeds cover the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet just to the north of Colombia. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area. Pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore Colombia tonight and Fri night with mainly moderate trades expected elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri night and the southwest Caribbean by Sat night. Expect fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas across the western part of the basin through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds can be expected in the Windward Passage Sun through early next week behind the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale-force wind warning. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 07N to 18N from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 10N northward between 33W and 40W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet from 18N northward between 40W and 50W. The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet from 08N northward between 50W and 60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong winds are from 20N to 28N between 35W and 45W. Mostly strong, with some near gale-force winds are from 10N to 18N between 20W and 30W. Strong winds are in the coastal waters of Africa from 20N to 22N. Moderate winds are elsewhere from 45W eastward. A stationary front passes through 31N70W to western sections of Florida near 27N82W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from the stationary front northward, and within 90 nm to the south of the stationary front. A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 28N72W, to the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, into the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is from 25N northward from 70W westward. Strong to near gale-force winds are from the 1015 mb low pressure center and the stationary front northward. A stationary front is along 31N55W to 28N60W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 28N72W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 25N northward between 59W and 70W. A surface trough is along 59W/60W from 21N to 26N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. A surface trough is along 28N53W, to a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 25N53W, to 20N54W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N to 30N between 51W and 55W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 30N between 38W and 47W. A surface trough is along 43W/44W from 15N to 20N. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong are within 400 nm to the east of the surface trough from 17N to 22N, and from 23N to 25N between 42W and 44W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 13N to 30N between 35W and 48W. A stationary front continues to linger from 31N71W to near Cape Canaveral, with strong winds on the north side of the boundary. A 1015 mb low is near 28N71W with strong winds south of it. The front will dissipate through tonight, with winds diminishing gradually through Fri afternoon. The low pressure that is between Florida and Bermuda will move NE of the area by Fri. A strong cold front then will move off the SE U.S. by Fri night with strong to near gale force winds following it across much of the basin through Sat. Gale-force winds are likely N of 27N Sat, with seas building to near 20 ft. These conditions will subside on Sun. $$ mt/AR