000 AXNT20 KNHC 272320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, then race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon and spread south to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within the strongest winds. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the start of next week. Please read the latest Offshore Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: a strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. and bring strong to near gale force winds to much of the SW N Atlantic basin Fri night and Sat. Gale winds are likely north of 27N Sat, with seas ranging between 10 to 17 ft. These conditions will dissipate on Sun. Please read the latest Offshore Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains mostly over W Africa. An ITCZ runs westward from 02N26W through 01S40W to near the French Guinea- Brazil border at 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from the Equator-03N between 35W-50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. A surface trough reaches westward from offshore of Tampa, Florida to the NW Gulf. Another surface trough extends southwestward from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. A third surface trough is near the E coast of Mexico along 97W. These features are triggering scattered showers across much of the Gulf. Winds across the Gulf are tranquil with seas 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the surface trough from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel will drift SE and gradually dissipate through tonight. The second surface trough extending from west-central Florida to near 26N92W too will dissipate by tonight. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, then race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon and spread S to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within the strongest winds. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the start of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb Bermuda High near 29N64W and a 1008 mb Colombian Low at 05N77W is producing fresh to strong NE winds just north of Colombia and tranquil winds elsewhere. Seas are 7-8 ft just north of Colombia, 4-6 ft elsewhere over the central and E Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are present over the Windward Islands, the W Caribbean, and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore Colombia tonight, with mainly moderate trades expected elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Sat and the southwest Caribbean by late Sat, bringing fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas to the basin through the weekend. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over the Windward Passage Sun into Mon behind the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front curves west-southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N67W to 30N73W, then continues as a stationary front across central Florida. Farther south, a 1014 mb low is persisting near the NW Bahamas at 27N76W. These features are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 25N between 67W and Florida. For the central Atlantic, a weakening stationary front near 28N60W along with a modest 1015 mb low near 25N52W are sustaining scattered showers N of 22N between 47W and 63W. Farther east, a robust upper-level low near 24N43W is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms from 15N to 28N between 37W and 45W. To the south, convergent trades near the southern extent of a surge are triggering scattered moderate convection from 04N to 10N between 30W and 50W. Strong upper-level winds are streaming widespread cirrus near the Cabo Verde Islands from 10N to 22N between the African coast and 34W. Fresh to strong NE winds with seas at 7 to 10 ft are found N of the stationary/cold front, N of 29N between 70W and the N Florida-Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 7 to 11 ft are evident N of 7N between 20W and 50W. Fresh to strong trades with 7 to 9-ft seas are present from the Equator to 07N between 25W and 52W. Light to gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate through tonight, with winds gradually diminishing. Low pressure between Florida and Bermuda will move NE of the area by Fri. As it does, a strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. and bring strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin Fri night/Sat. Gale winds are likely N of 27N Sat, with seas ranging between 10 to 17 ft. These conditions will dissipate on Sun. $$ Landsea