000 AXNT20 KNHC 262334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri, then race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin into Sat. Gales are expected offshore Mexico between the Mouth of the Rio Grande River and Tampico Fri afternoon, spreading southward to offshore Veracruz Fri night. These N gales could possibly extend eastward across the central and south-central Gulf Fri night behind the front. The gales offshore Veracruz should end Sat morning. Seas will build to 12-15 ft across the west-central and southwest Gulf of Mexico behind the front. Conditions will improve across the Gulf Sat night. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A weak monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 02N23W to 06.5N34W to 05N41W to 03N50W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 03N between 16W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 33W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends westward from near Tampa, Florida to a 1014 mb low pressure over the NE Gulf near 27N87W, then continues west-northwestward as a stationary front through Freeport, Texas. Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are occurring along and up to 120 nm N of this boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds with seas of 8 to 12 ft are present across the N Gulf, along and north of the front. A dissipating stationary front curves southwestward from Naples, Florida to 22N89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 60 nm SE of this feature, mainly over the Florida Straits between 82W and 85W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present over the W central and SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the far SE Gulf. For the forecast, the frontal boundary with the 1014 mb low pres in the northeast Gulf will gradually weaken and move inland into Florida by tonight, with strong winds in the north-central Gulf gradually diminishing tonight. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri, bringing gale force winds to portions of the basin. See the special features section above for details on the gale warning. High pressure will move over the Gulf Sun, with gentle winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level anticyclonic flow covers the Caribbean Sea, leading to subsidence and relatively dry conditions across the basin. Isolated showers are seen in the Yucatan Channel ahead of a dissipating frontal boundary over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh trades were noted in earlier scatterometer data over the south- central Caribbean Sea, where seas are likely 5 to 7 ft. Locally strong winds may be occurring near the coast of Colombia. Moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean with 4-5 ft seas. Gentle SE to S winds are found over the NW Caribbean, where seas range from 1 to 4 ft. For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore Colombia through Fri night. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades will prevail into the weekend. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by late Fri night and reach from western Haiti to NE Nicaragua by early Sun. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected over the Yucatan Channel late Fri night into early Sat morning behind the front. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds will occur over the remainder of the NW Caribbean along with building seas through the weekend. Expect fresh to strong winds Mon and Mon night over the Windward Passage behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from 31N74W to Melbourne Florida. Farther S, a dissipating stationary front is along 27N between 76W-81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the NW Bahamas from 26N-27N between 76W-79W. Over the W central Atlantic, another weak cold front extends southwestward from 31N61W to 24N66W. Scattered showers are present north of 29N between the front and 65W. Scattered showers are also noted north of 28N between 53W-59W. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough runs northward from a 1015 mb low near 24N47W to 31N45W. Isolated moderate convection is seen near this low. Fresh to strong winds and 8-12 ft seas are located north of 21N between 35W-50W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere west of 35W, with seas of 4-6 ft. East of 35W, fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail across much of the area north of 12N. A weak upper-level low is near 23N38W, producing scattered showers and tstorms from 20N-26N between 34W-39W. For the forecast west of 65W, the slow moving cold front from 31N61W to 24N66W will continue to weaken as the front moves E of the area by the end of the week. The front extending from 31N74W to Melbourne Florida will receive a reinforcing push of strong NE winds to the north of it late tonight into Thu as the front stalls along 28N. Expect strong NE winds to then persist through Fri morning N of 28N before the boundary dissipates. Another stronger cold front will moves off the coast of Florida Fri evening and extend from 31N71W to central Cuba Sat morning. This front will bring near gale force winds behind it Fri night through Sat north of 25N, with gale force winds possible north of 28N. Seas north of 27N will build to 12-18 ft. $$ Hagen