000 AXNT20 KNHC 261001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1015 mb low pressure area is centered near 25N43W. A surface trough extends from 30N43W to the low to 21N42W. Scattered moderate convection is displaced well E of the low, from 19N to 27N between 31W and 37W. Gale force mainly E winds are ongoing within about 120 nm from the center of the low in the NE semicircle,with a broad area of fresh to strong winds extending out 180 nm from the center in the N semicircle and 270 nm in the E semicircle. Seas in the area of gales are 11 to 14 ft, with the rest of the region having seas of 8 to 11 ft. This low is moving W at 10 to 15 kt, and is expected to weaken today. Thus, associated gales should diminish to strong winds later this morning. Winds and seas will decrease further by Thu when the low opens into a trough. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A surface trough extends from 03N08E to 02N03W to 01N18W. Another surface trough stretches from 07N16N to 02N30W. A third surface trough is noted from 06N37W to 02N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 06N between 22W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure of 1013 mb is centered in the NE Gulf near 28N87W. A previous cold front has devolved into a surface trough, and extends westward from the low to 25N94W. Another surface trough, remnants of a stationary front, extends E from the low into the northern Florida peninsula. To the southeast of the low, an occluded front connects to another low pressure center, of 1012 mb, located near 26N84W. A warm front stretches from this low E into the central Florida Peninsula, and a cold front extends SW from this low to the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough lags about 150 nm behind this cold front, in the south-central Gulf. Convection associated with these features is confined to a band of moderate convection within 60 nm ahead of the cold front, to the E of 87W. NE winds to the N and W of the low in the NE Gulf are strong to near gale, N of 26N and E of 93W. Elsewhere over much of the Gulf to behind the cold front, mainly fresh N winds are ongoing. Finally, ahead of the cold front in the SE Gulf, gentle to moderate mainly SW winds prevail. Seas in the area of strong to near gale force winds are 8 to 11 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas behind the cold front, and 3 to 5 ft seas ahead of the cold front. For the forecast, complex low pressure over the eastern Gulf will weaken and move inland into Florida by tonight, with strong to near gale force winds in the north-central and NE Gulf gradually diminishing. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri, then race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin into Sat. Gales are likely offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico, late Fri into Sat behind this cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean Sea is clear of any notable surface features. 1009 mb low pressure along the northern border of Venezuela and Colombia combined with high pressure north of the basin is supporting fresh to strong winds and resultant building 5 to 8 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted offshore of the north- central coast of Honduras due to a locally tight pressure gradient, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are across the remainder of the basin. A few isolated showers on the trade wind flow can't be ruled out over portions of the eastern and central Caribbean. For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore Colombia into the weekend, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras diminishing tonight. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades will prevail into the weekend. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night, and bring fresh to strong winds and building seas through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a central Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front extends from just E of Bermuda to just NE of the Turks and Caicos islands, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front that extents to the north coast of Haiti. Behind the front, a surface trough is noted from just E of Bermuda to just NE of the Bahamas. Convection previously associated with this features has diminished. A warm front that extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico has developed east to offshore the central Florida peninsula, and scattered moderate convection has developed north of it, with about 120 nm of the coast. Convection is also behind enhanced along a surface trough that is noted from the NE coast of Florida northward about 150 nm. Ahead of the cold front, N of 27N and W of 50W, fresh SW winds are occurring, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. South of the warm front between South Florida and the Bahamas, moderate southerly winds are increasing. Seas throughout this portion of the Atlantic are 2 to 4 ft, lowest within the Bahamas. Elsewhere across the basin, fresh to strong NE winds prevail E of 35W, with mainly moderate tradewinds to the W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the area of higher winds, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 65W, the slow moving cold front extending S from E of Bermuda will continue to progress E of the area by then end of the week, while gradually dissipating from the S. Another cold front will move S into the area tonight, then stall along 28N into Thu, before dissipating. Low pressure will also emerge off the South Florida coast Thu, then meander over the NW Bahamas into Fri, before lifting northward, as another stronger cold front moves off the SE U.S. coast Fri night. This front will bring near gale force winds and rough seas behind it for the weekend. $$ KONARIK