000 AXNT20 KNHC 252353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 04N07W to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 01S21W to 01N35W. A surface trough is analyzed from 00N39W to 04N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S-07N between 18W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low pressure center is in the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N88W. A stationary front extends east-northeastward from the low pressure center to the Florida Big Bend. A cold front extends southwestward from the low pressure center to 24N90W to 20N94W to 18N94W. A sharp surface trough is along 26N between 84W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of 87.5W to the coast of Florida, from 23.5N to 30N. Strong to locally near gale-force wind speeds are likely occurring near the surface trough and near the 1010 mb low pressure. Fresh N winds are occurring elsewhere west of the cold front. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring over most of the central and western Gulf. Seas are 3 to 4 ft over the eastern Bay of Campeche and portions of the far SE Gulf. For the forecast, the low pressure will move to the NE Gulf through tonight where it will weaken before tracking SE and moving E of the area Wed night. The next cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Fri followed by strong to near gale force winds, possibly reaching gale force over the Tampico and Veracruz offshore waters Fri evening into Sat morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough is noted near western Haiti and the Windward Passage with possible isolated showers. Otherwise, mid to upper- level anticyclonic flow in inducing subsidence and dry air across the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are likely occurring over the NW Caribbean, west of 84W. Moderate to fresh trades are also noted over the central Caribbean between 65W-80W. Fresh to strong winds are in the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Generally gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere in the eastern and central basin. Seas are 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2-3 ft north of 18N between 73W-84W. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras, central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Thu, except for the south-central basin where strong winds will prevail. Fresh to strong winds over the northern Colombia offshore waters will diminish Fri night as high pressure north of the area is replaced by a strong cold front. This front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sat morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas following the front will affect the NW basin through the remainder of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 31N68W. An occluded front extends E from the low to a triple point near 31N64W. A cold front extends from 31N64W to the N coast of Haiti. A warm front extends E from the triple point to 31N58W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to 25N71W. A 1018 mb surface high pressure is N of the Bahamas near 28N77W. Although no major areas of precipitation are associated with the aforementioned frontal features, scattered showers are off Florida, mainly north of 26N and west of 76W, due to strong upper-level diffluence in the area. Wind speeds associated with the aforementioned low, front and trough are mainly moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 4 ft west of 73W, and 4 to 6 ft between 60W-73W. Farther east, a 1012 mb low pressure is near 25N40W. A surface trough partially wraps around the low, extending from 28N40W to 27N35W to 23N33W to 16N35W to 12N42W. An upper-level low is centered near 22N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 19N-28N between 31.5W-41.5W. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely occurring in the northern semicircle of this low pressure system, with fresh winds occurring over much of the remainder of the eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 45W. Seas of 8-12 ft are likely occurring north of 23N between 27W-46W as a result of this low pressure system. Moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere across the area. For the forecast west of 65W, the low currently near 31N68W will move NE, and north of the area this evening. The trailing cold front will gradually slide east into late week, while another cold front moves southward down the east coast of the U.S. Wed into Thu. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will follow the second front with building seas affecting the offshore waters N of 28N Wed night through Fri. A low pressure is forecast to develop over the NE Florida offshore waters Fri morning along with a cold front that will affect the Florida seaboard Fri night and the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. Strong to near gale winds and rough seas will affect the region during this period. $$ Hagen