000 AXNT20 KNHC 250356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jan 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 mb low pressure located near 24.5N34W that resides along a robust surface trough extending from the low to 19N34W is supporting gale-force winds as confirmed by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. These winds have generated seas of 8 to 14 ft, highest near 27N32W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to 28N between 28W and 36W. These winds are forecast to be in the process of diminishing this evening. Please refer to the latest Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/m etarea2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across the African Continent along roughly 06N to the coast near Liberia at 05N08.5W. The ITCZ continues from 05N08.5W to 02N20W to the equator near 39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 07N between 24W and 33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 12N between 17W and 23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low pressure area is analyzed offshore of Texas near 27N94W. A developing warm front extends northeast of the low to south of the Gulf coast of Louisiana and to near 29.5N88W. A developing cold front extends southwest of the low through 24N96.5W to near Tampico Mexico and inland across portions of northwest Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is spreading across the northwestern half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the vicinity of the low with building seas to 6 ft, locally higher in any deeper convection. A surface trough is analyzed in the western Gulf from 23N96.5W to 19N95W. Another surface trough is analyzed along the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is noted elsewhere in the Gulf west of 90W, except W-NW winds west of the developing cold front, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. A pair of 1017 mb high pressure centers are located over the Florida Peninsula, one near Tampa Bay at 28N82W and the other near Everglades City near 25N81W. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds are east of 90W, except light east of 84W. For the forecast, the low pressure in the NW Gulf will move across the northern and eastern Gulf through Wed. This low and its associated cold front will be strong to near gale-force winds, higher seas, and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will bring more tranquil conditions Wed night through Thu night. Another cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Fri, and will likely bring near-gale conditions to portions of the Gulf Fri night and Sat, along with building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong winds continue within 90 nm of the Colombian coast, due to the tight gradient between high pressure north of the basin and a 1007 mb low over northern Colombia not far from Bogota. Seas are building in the area of strong winds, currently at 7 ft. No other significant surface features are noted across the basin. Fairly clear skies are noted, except for some isolated showers in the northeast and north-central Caribbean, with isolated to scattered showers possible offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere, except gentle to moderate north of 17N and east of 83W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in the central Caribbean, 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombian will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Generally gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. A cold front may approach the NW Caribbean Fri and bring fresh to strong winds with building seas through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features sections for information on a Gale Warning east of 35W. A 1009 mb surface low is located northeast of the Bahamas near 27N72W. A warm front extends northeast-east of the low through 29N70W to 28N66W, continuing as a cold front to 31N60W. A cold front extends from the low to across the central Bahamas near 24N76W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 26N70W to near the eastern tip of Cuba at 20N74W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 26N to 31N between 55W and 68W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible elsewhere in the vicinity of the warm front and cold front. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted within 90 nm of the low and warm front, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 50W. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across this same area, except 3 ft or less inside the Bahamas. To the east, a pair of weak surface troughs are in the open tropical Atlantic, one from 26N46W to 21N46W, and another from 17N36W to 11N42W with isolated showers possible in the vicinity of both troughs. Otherwise, broad ridging noses into the open tropical waters from 1035 high pressure over the Azores. Fresh to strong winds are noted from 15N to 26N between the coast of Africa and 30W, and elsewhere from 20N to 31N between 30W and 40W around the gale-force low discussed above, along with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed northerly swell dominates the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure northeast of the Bahamas will move northeast and out of the region Tue. Its trailing cold front will move east through the area through Tue night, then dissipate. Another low pressure is forecast to move offshore south Florida Wed. In the wake of this system, strong to near gale-force northerly winds are possible Wed night into Fri morning. A strong cold front is expected to emerge off the Florida coast Fri night, bringing another round of strong to near gale- force winds. $$ Lewitsky