000
AXNT20 KNHC 240858
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African 
continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
07N13W to 03N30W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 04N to 08N between 15W and 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure centered just offshore Galveston, Texas,
is dominating the basin this morning. Anticyclonic flow is
bringing gentle to moderate NE to SE winds, with seas of 3 to 5
ft. A surface trough across the far western Gulf just offshore the
Mexican coast is leading to some fresh southerly winds and seas of
4 to 6 ft within 120 nm of the shore. 

For the forecast, high pressure will weaken and move east, and low
pressure will form later today along the middle Texas coast, then
move E across the northern Gulf through Tue night. This low and 
its associated cold front will bring strong winds, higher seas, 
and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will bring more 
tranquil conditions Wed night through Thu, but another cold front 
is forecast to move into the Gulf Fri, and this may bring gales to
portions of the SW Gulf starting Fri night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong winds continue within 90 nm of the Colombian coast, due to
the tight gradient between high pressure N of the basin and a 1007
mb low over N Colombia. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in this region.
Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh NE to E trades
dominate, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, and no convection.  

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in 
the central Atlantic and the Colombian low will support near gale 
conditions to pulse nightly through mid-week. Generally moderate 
to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A cold front may approach 
the NW Caribbean by Wed night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from S of Bermuda to the Bahamas. Some
strong SW winds are occurring just ahead of the front, N of 29N,
where seas are 8 to 10 ft and scattered moderate convection 
exists. Otherwise, winds are generally moderate with seas of 5 to 
7 ft. A surface trough has formed from around 31N72W to just N of 
the Bahamas, and generally N winds to the W of this boundary have 
increased to fresh. 

For the forecast west of 65W, weak low pressure is likely to form
along the stationary front NE of the Bahamas today, then lift NE 
and out of the area Tue, as the front dissipates. Another low 
pressure will move offshore FL Tue night, with strong to near 
gale-force northerly winds likely behind its associated cold front
Wed night and Thu.

Farther E, a robust surface trough extends from 26N29W to 11N41W.
To the E of the trough, a large area of fresh to strong mainly E
winds dominate. These winds have generated swell that is causing
seas of 7 to 9 ft to reach as far W as around 40W. In addition, a
broad area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to
26N between 22W and 34W. This trough and associated active weather
is expected to move W to NW over the next few days, before
weakening late in the week. Elsewhere across the central and
tropical Atlantic mainly moderate trades dominate with seas of 5
to 7 ft. 

$$
KONARIK