711 AXNT20 KNHC 230851 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force offshore Colombia early this morning, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The ridge will shift some east and weaken slightly by tonight, allowing for gales to end. However, winds will pulse to near gale each night into mid week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N31W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 19W and 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has now stalled from the Florida Straits to Yucatan Peninsula. Localized strong N winds are occurring in the western Bay of Campeche, along with a broader area of 8 to 10 ft seas. These winds are behind enhanced by a surface trough that stretches just offshore the Mexican coast. Otherwise, moderate to fresh mainly NE winds prevail, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. No significant convection is occurring along the front or elsewhere in the basin, which is being dominated by high pressure that is centered over Texas. The stationary front will dissipate later today. In the wake of the front, fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in the SW Gulf will also decrease today as high pressure crosses N of the region. Low pressure will emerge off the Texas coast Mon evening, then track across the northern and eastern Gulf into Wed. Strong winds and higher seas are likely with this low and behind its associated cold front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the gale warning off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the Colombian Basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail, except over the NW Caribbean, where gentle NE winds are occurring. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Dry conditions are suppressing any convection over the basin. For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support strong to gale conditions offshore Colombia early this morning, with near gale conditions possibly pusling nightly early this week. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front will move through waters near western Cuba today, before dissipating tonight. Another cold front may approach the NW Caribbean Tue night into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from just E of Bermuda through the NW Bahamas and into the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm on either side of the boundary. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are observed behind the front, with mainly moderate SW flow and seas of 5 to 7 ft to the S and E of the front to 60W. Gentle to moderate trades generally prevail S of 25N, with light to gentle winds to the north. A surface trough along 35W is inducing scattered convection from 10N to 20N between 25W and 35W, along with locally fresh winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft. Seas across the remainder of the basin are 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front extending from just E of Bermuda through the NW Bahamas and into the Florida Straits will move E into Tue, then stall and dissipate over eastern section of the area. The next cold front will move off the SE U.S. by Wed, and may bring strong winds behind it starting Wed night. $$ KONARIK