000 AXNT20 KNHC 210523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The surface pressure gradient, between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and in Panama, will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Sea heights will build to a range from 8-12 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken, thus leading to fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin through the middle of next week. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... Strong high pressure is rapidly building behind a cold front that extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to Veracruz, Mexico offshore waters. This is supporting ongoing gale-force northerly winds over the Tampico offshore waters with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Near gale force winds will continue along the eastern Mexico offshore waters through late Fri with gale conditions shifting to the Veracruz region tonight. The front will extend from Sarasota, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening when winds and seas will diminish below gale-force. However, fresh to strong N to NE winds will gradually diminish through Sun. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa, extending about 120 nm offshore Liberia to near 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. No convection is observed at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico. A weak 1017 mb low pressure formed near the Florida Big Bend and extends a cold front southwest to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are behind the boundary, with near gale force winds west of 95W where seas are 9 to 11 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along this front. Gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the low will move NE into the SE U.S. and the cold front will move SE through the Gulf and exit the basin Sat. Behind the front, gales have developed offshore Tampico, Mexico, and these gales will expand S and E, including offshore Veracruz, into Fri. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front then shift eastward through Mon, at which time fresh to strong southerly flow develops over the NW Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This front will move off the Texas coast Mon, and will quickly reach the eastern Gulf Tue and Tue night. Mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow behind this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale warning for the Caribbean Sea. Dry air subsidence from aloft supports fair weather over most of the basin. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters is supporting fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the south-central region where seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Sea heights are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient over the SW N Atlantic waters will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Seas will build with these winds. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trade winds will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Caribbean Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong high pressure ridging dominates the western and central Atlantic waters. A surface trough extends along 79W allowing for isolated showers and thunderstorms just east of south Florida. A recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals gentle to moderate winds west of 65W. Farther east, a dissipating cold front extends from 31N36W SW to 25N47W. Fresh to strong NE winds are behind the front, north of 27N and east of 45W. Elsewhere moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. Seas west of 60W are 4 to 6 ft, while between 52W and 35W seas are 9 to 12 ft, and 7 to 9 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure located northeast of Bermuda will shift northeastward allowing for the next cold front to move offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Low pressure forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico will move into the western Atlantic Sat evening, then move across the northern forecast waters on Sun. High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Tue as another cold front moves across the waters NE of northern Florida through Tue night. Fresh southerly winds will precede this front. $$ Mora