000 AXNT20 KNHC 210002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The surface pressure gradient, between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and in Panama, will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Sea heights will build to a range from 8-12 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken, thus leading to fresh to strong winds winds in the south-central basin through the middle of next week. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... Strong high pressure is rapidly building behind a cold front that extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to Veracruz, Mexico offshore waters. This is supporting ongoing gale-force northerly winds over the Tampico offshore waters with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Near gale force winds will continue along the eastern Mexico offshore waters through late Fri with gale conditions shifting to the Veracruz region tonight. The front will extend from Sarasota, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening when winds and seas will diminish below gale-force. However, fresh to strong N to NE winds will gradually diminish through Sun. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N24W to 05N41W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 03N to 15N between 19W and 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to Veracruz, Mexico offshore waters this evening. Near gale to gale force N to NE winds are behind the front with the strongest winds being off the east-central Mexico coast or the Tampico offshore waters. Gale force winds will extend to the region of Vercruz tonight. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the central Gulf on Fri, and quickly move northeastward across Florida into the western Atlantic Sat evening pushing the cold front across the southeastern Gulf into Sun morning. Winds behind the front will diminish below gale force early Fri evening. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front then shift eastward through Mon, at which time fresh to strong southerly flow develops over the NW Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This front will move off the Texas coast Mon, will quickly reach the eastern Gulf Tue and Tue night. Mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow behind this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale warning for the Caribbean Sea. Patches of shallow moisture are supporting isolated showers in the Mona Passage as well the Gulf of Honduras. Farther west, the tail of a pre-frontal trough support a line of showers in the Yucatan Channel. Dry air subsidence from aloft support fair weather elsewhere. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters is supporting fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the south-central region where seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Sea heights are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere, except the NW Caribbean where seas are up to 4 ft. The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Seas will build with these winds. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trade winds has increased and will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Caribbean Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure located northeast of Bermuda will shift northeastward allowing for the next cold front to move offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Low pressure forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico will move into the western Atlantic Sat evening, then move across the northern forecast waters on Sun. High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Tue as another cold front move across the waters NE of northern Florida through Tue night. Fresh southerly winds will precede this front. $$ Ramos