000 AXNT20 KNHC 191750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning... The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure that is building into the W Atlantic Ocean and the low pressure of Colombia and Panama, will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force in the south central Caribbean Sea, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night. The sea heights will build to a range from 10 feet to 12 feet with these winds. These marine conditions are expected tonight, and again on Thursday night. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning... A cold front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Brownsville in Texas on Thursday morning; and from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz in Mexico by Thursday night. Strong northerly winds, and building sea heights, are expected in the wake of the front in the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force wind conditions are forecast in the west central Gulf of Mexico, including in the Tampico Mexico area on Thursday and Thursday night. Gale- force winds also are expected in the SW Gulf of Mexico, including in the Veracruz region on Thursday night and Friday. Building seas heights from 10 feet to 13 feet are expected with the fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about each situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is to the east of the Prime Meridian in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N, to 05N10W 03N20W 02N30W, to the Equator along 38W, to 02N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 160 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 28W and 33W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico, and the sea heights. A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, into the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, into interior Mexico beyond the coast at 20N. Fresh southerly return flow is in the western Gulf. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, cover the rest of the area. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters today. Fresh southerly return flow across the western Gulf will persist today ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico late Thu night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Gale conditions are forecast over the west central and SW Gulf Thu through Fri. Then, the front is forecast to move slowly eastward on Fri, and a weak low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary over the NE Gulf on Sat. The possible low is forecast to move NE into the W Atlantic, dragging the cold front across the SE Gulf by Sat night and early Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Caribbean Sea, and the sea heights. A cold front passes through 21N68W in the Atlantic Ocean. The boundary is a dissipating cold front from 21N68W, through parts of Haiti, to Jamaica. Strong winds are from the Windward Passage to 23N between 72W and 77W. A surface trough is along 85W/86W from 18N to 20N, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from the trough westward and northwestward, to Central America and the Yucatan Channel. Near gale-force winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. Strong winds are elsewhere from 16N southward between 70W and 80W. Strong winds are from 14N southward between the SE Caribbean Sea islands and 66W. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, cover the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the rest of the south central Caribbean Sea, including in the waters of eastern Panama. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the remainder of the areas...in the eastern and central sections. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW part of the basin. Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated to widely scattered rainshowers, throughout the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the south central Caribbean Sea, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These marine conditions are expected tonight and Thu night, and possibly again Fri night. The aerial extent of the fresh to strong trades will increase today and persist through Fri, covering mainly the waters between 68W and 80W. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N50W 24N60W 21N68W. The boundary is a dissipating cold front from 21N68W, through parts of Haiti, to Jamaica. Strong winds are from the Windward Passage to 23N between 72W and 77W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the cold front. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from the cold front northward between 60W and 70W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the north of the cold front. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 31N40W. A surface trough passes through 31N21W, to 24N30W 24N44W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 04N northward between 30W and 50W; from 7 feet to 10 feet from the Canary Islands northward from 20W eastward. A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 34N26W. Strong to near gale-force winds are from 26N northward between Africa and the Canary Islands. Strong winds, and faster, are from 28N northward between the Canary Islands and 30W. Fresh to strong NW winds are from 28N northward between 30W and 37W. Fresh to strong winds are within 300 nm to the north of the coasts of Suriname and French Guiana between 50W and 57W. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 26W and 30W, and within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 41W and 46W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 840 nm of the 1005 mb low pressure center in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate covers the rest of the area that is from 20N northward from 45W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in the remainder of the area. A stationary front extends from 23N65W to 20N72W. The portion of the front from 23N65W to 20N72W will begin to lift N today, then dissipate tonight. Large seas will continue to affect the waters N of 25N and E of 70W today while subsiding. High pressure will be in control of the weather pattern across the area through Thu. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. It is likely for the front to reach from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral Florida Sat morning. $$ mt/ah