000 AXNT20 KNHC 182258 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Gale-force NE winds are forecast to occur within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia from tonight until Wednesday morning. Peak seas should reach 8-10 feet. The wind speeds will weaken slightly during the day Wednesday, then return to gale-force winds Wednesday night. Seas would peak again around 12-13 feet. Winds should drop below gale-force by Thursday morning. However, yet another round of gale-force winds may occur again Thursday night. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about the warning situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ begins along the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from the equator-08N between 42W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high is centered over the Florida panhandle. The high is forcing fresh S return flow in the W Gulf and moderate to weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 feet across the Gulf. No significant deep convection is occurring today. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Wed. Fresh southerly return flow across the western Gulf will continue through Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late Wed night. The front will reach from near Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to 25N94W to 18N94W Fri morning. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf, with gale conditions expected offshore Mexico between the Rio Grande River and Veracruz beginning Thu afternoon, and possibly lasting through Fri. The front is forecast to move slowly eastward or perhaps become stationary this weekend, while gradually weakening. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale- force wind warning for the Caribbean Sea. A shear line is present from near Haiti southwestward to Nicaragua. Scattered showers are present within 60 NM of the shear line. NE winds northwest of the shear line are fresh, while the NE winds southeast of the shear line are gentle to moderate. Elsewhere the NE to E trades are moderate except fresh to strong within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia. Seas are 6-8 ft near Colombia and 3-5 ft elsewhere across the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the south-central Caribbean, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These marine conditions are expected tonight, Wed night, and possibly Thu night. The area of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean will expand Wed and persist through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W southwestward to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 NM of the front. Ahead of the front, SW winds north of 28N are fresh to near gale. Behind the front, W to NW winds north of 29N are fresh to strong. A large area of NW swell of at least 8 ft is present behind the front and an altimeter pass earlier today observed seas up to 18 ft at 31N66W. Elsewhere a surface trough extends from 31N27W to 24N46W. NW winds to the west of the trough are fresh to strong and accompanied by seas up to 13 ft. Fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 30N and E of 70W will persist through this afternoon before diminishing. Large seas will continue to affect the northern waters through tonight and will gradually subside from W to E. The front will move across the SE waters today, become stationary tonight, then begin to lift N Wed while dissipating. High pressure will build in over the western Atlantic along 31N tonight. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. $$ Landsea