000 AXNT20 KNHC 181748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning... The 18/1200 UTC forecast consists of: gale-force winds forecast to be within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, starting from the late night hours of Tuesday night until around sunrise on Wednesday morning. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet. The wind speeds will become slower, and less than gale-force, from Wednesday morning until Wednesday night. The gale-force winds will return on Wednesday night, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to 11 feet. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about the warning situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N, to 05N04W. The ITCZ continues from 05N04W to 05N13W, 03N18W 04N24W, 02N37W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 53W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is in SW Georgia, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds cover the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Wed. Fresh southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf today, ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late Wed night. The front will reach from near Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from Panama City, Florida to near Tuxpan, Mexico by Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front, with gale conditions possible in the west central and SW Gulf Thu through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Caribbean Sea, and the sea heights. A cold front passes through the Windward Passage. A shear line continues from the Windward Passage, southwestward across Jamaica, to the SE coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: rainshowers cover the area that extends northwestward from the cold front/shear line. Strong northerly winds are within 100 nm of the shear line on the northern/western side of the shear line. Fresh to moderate winds are elsewhere to the north and northwest of the shear line. Moderate to fresh winds cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge passes through 21N58W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 15N73W. Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated to widely scattered rainshowers, throughout the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet between 70W and 80W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. The pressure gradient, between high pressure building across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low, will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the south central Caribbean Sea, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These marine conditions are expected tonight, Wed night, and possibly Thu night. The area of fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea will expand Wed and persist into Thu. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N62W 22N70W, into the Windward Passage. A surface trough is about 240 nm to the northwest of the cold front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the east of the cold front at the southern end of the front, and within 380 nm to the east of the cold front at the northern end of the front. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 26N northward between 70W and 78W. A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 36N45W, to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 25N45W. The 30N27W low pressure center of 24 hours ago has moved to the north of the area. A surface trough passes through 31N22W to 30N21W 27N21W 20N26W. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N29W to 27N35W 27N43W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet, from 18N northward between 20W and 40W, from 12N northward between 40W and 49W, from 12N to 23N between 49W and 60W, and from 29N northward between 54W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the area from 20N northward from 43W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in the remainder of the area. A surface trough is in the coastal waters of Africa, from 12N near Guinea-Bissau to 23N near the southern parts of the Western Sahara. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 19N to 23N from 21W eastward to Africa. A cold front extends from 27N65W to the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N74W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 29N and E of 72W will persist through early this afternoon before diminishing. Large seas will continue to affect the northern waters through tonight and will subside gradually from W to E. The front will move across the SE waters today, become stationary tonight, then begin to move N Wed while dissipating. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic along 31N tonight. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore northern Florida on Fri. $$ mt/ah