000 AXNT20 KNHC 180553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N66W to E Cuba. S-SW to SW gale-force winds, and seas of 15 to 17 ft will persist near the front and north of 30N. Both winds and seas should begin to subside late Tue morning. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building across the W Atlantic in the wake of a frontal boundary will tighten the pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters over the next couple of days. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Tue night and Wed night, and possibly Thu night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 06N14W. An ITCZ then continues from 06N14W through 04N30W to NE of the Amazon River Delta, Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 09N between 13W and 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high over the W central Gulf is building eastward into the E Gulf. Light to gentle winds along with seas at 3 to 4 ft are found over the W Gulf, while gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the central and E Gulf. For the forecast, fresh southerly return flow will set up across the W Gulf on Tue ahead of the next cold front, forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late Wed night. It will push eastward reaching Apalachicola, Florida southwestward to Tampico, Mexico Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front, with gale conditions possible over the W central and SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on a Gale Warning. A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from E Cuba across Jamaica to the coast of Nicaragua. Scattered showers are occurring up to 60 nm on either sides of the front. A trade-wind disturbance is producing similar weather near the Windward and Bonaire Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident near and up to 130 nm NW of the front. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted over the NW basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the stationary front is expected to dissipate early Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the S central Caribbean beginning tonight as high pressure builds N of the area. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force at during the night times on Tue, Wed and possibly Thur within about 90 nm N of the Colombian coast. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on a Gale Warning. A cold front stretches southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N66W and the SE Bahamas to E Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present near and up to 200 nm SE of the front. Farther E, a much weaker cold front curves southwestward from SW of the Azores across 31N34W to 27N44W, then continues as a surface trough to 25N52W. Scattered showers are found up to 100 nm SE, and 50 nm NW of these features. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale SW to W winds with seas at 12 to 14 ft exist near the cold front, N of 27N between 62W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are seen farther S from 24N to 27N between 60W and Florida coast. Across the central Atlantic, the Atlantic ridge is promoting gentle to moderate winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft from 19N to 27N between 28W and 60W. N of 27N between 28W and 62W, gentle to moderate northerly winds are found near the weaker cold front; along with seas at 9 to 11 ft caused by residual northerly swell. Moderate to fresh SE to SW to NW winds with seas at 8 to 11 ft are noted near the Canary Islands N of 24N between the NW African coast and 28W. Farther S, light to gentle N to NE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate from 11N to 24N between southern Sahara/Mauritania coast and 35W. To the W, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with seas at 6 to 9 ft are present from 05N to 19N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 65W, gale-force SW winds N of 30N E of front to about 63W will diminish below gale force late Tue morning. Strong W to NW winds will continue N of 27N and W of the front through Tue morning. The front will reach from 27N65W to E Cuba near 21N74W by Tue morning, then move across the SE waters on Tue afternoon before lifting N by Tue night into Wed while dissipating. Seas will gradually subside from W to E through mid- week. High pressure will build eastward behind the front. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore from N Florida by early Fri. $$ Chan