000 AXNT20 KNHC 171014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N74W to the central Bahamas into central Cuba. Recent scatterometer data indicate gale force winds of 35-40 kt on either side of the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 28N and W of 73W. Seas are in the 12-17 ft range within these winds. Gale force winds will persist on either side of the front through this afternoon. The front will reach from 31N65W to eastern Cuba by this evening, and from 31N55W to near the Windward passage by Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the front and mainly N of 27N through Tue afternoon. Seas will gradually subside from W to E. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the Guinea/Sierra Leone border near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N20W to 03N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N and between 30W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The Gale Warning for the NE Gulf expired at 0600 UTC as a recent scatterometer pass over the area indicates NW winds of 25-30 kt. High pressure continues to build across the basin with a 1022 mb center currently over the SW Gulf. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted on satellite imagery over most of the Gulf waters E of 94W. Surface observations and scatterometer data depict fresh to strong NW winds E of 90W, while fresh or weaker NW-N winds are found W of 90W. Seas of 10-15 ft are occurring E of 90W with seas of 8-12 ft in the SW Gulf. Seas less than 8 ft prevail in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, winds have diminished below gale force over the NE Gulf. Seas will gradually subside from W to E today, with seas under 12 ft over the eastern Gulf by this morning. High pressure will dominate the Gulf region through Wed. Fresh southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf on Tue ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas Wed night and extend from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from Ciego de Avila, Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front with seas of 8-11 ft in NW swell over the far NW Caribbean, particularly N of 20N W of 84W, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 5-8 ft are observed elsewhere behind the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen ahead of the front affecting eastern Cuba and coastal waters. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere E of the front. Seas of 3-5 ft dominate much of the east and central Caribbean with the exception of 5-7 ft near the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by this morning, then stall and dissipate by tonight. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Then, fresh to strong winds are expected in the south- central Caribbean beginning on Tue as high pressure builds N of area. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning remains in effect for portions of the western Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. Outside of the Special Features, a cold front extends from 31N43W to 25N52W where it becomes stationary to near 22N57W. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. Seas of 8-12 ft in NW swell are in the wake of the front. A weak 1018 mb high pressure is analyzed ahead of the front near 28N40W. Farther east, a 1006 mb low pressure is located near 31N27W. A cold front extends from the low center to 20N26W. Scattered showers are ahead of the front mainly from 24N to 29N to 20W. Strong to near gale force winds and seas in the 12-16 ft range are within about 210 nm NW quadrant of the low center, with fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 8-12 on the E semicircle. patches of low level moisture with possible showers are moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 65W, see the Special Features section for details. $$ GR