000 AXNT20 KNHC 152330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will emerge off the Florida coast Sun morning. Strong south winds will begin to impact the northwest offshore waters late tonight, with winds increasing to gale-force Sun morning. Near-gale to gale force winds will affect the waters north of about 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually improve late Mon into Tue morning, but prior to then, mariners are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts and consider avoidance plans. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the western Gulf of Mexico and will continue SE across the rest of the basin through tonight. Strong to gale- force northwest to north winds and very rough seas reaching the range of 12-18 ft will follow the front across much of the Gulf today and Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to near 02N20W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N20W to 01S41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to 07N and E of 23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning. The cold front extends off of central Louisiana coast near 29N91W to 24N94W to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A pre-frontal trough is ahead of the front from 25N92W to 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the west-central Gulf from 21N to 30N between 87W to 95W. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong winds are noted in the central Gulf with moderate winds in the eastern Gulf. Behind the cold front, the ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed widespread NW gale- force winds occurring in the western Gulf. Buoys are reporting seas 9-12 ft in the NW Gulf, N of 25N and W of 92W. High pressure is quickly building in behind the front. Buoys in the central and eastern Gulf are reporting 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the strong to gale-force winds will continue to follow the front across most of the basin as it moves E across the Gulf. The front is forecast to move east of the basin Sun afternoon, however trailing fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the eastern Gulf will be very gradual to diminish on Mon. Aside from the hazardous conditions described above, scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, over the central and eastern Gulf. Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level dry air continue to support fair weather across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are across the Caribbean, except for fresh winds along the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, with 5 ft seas near the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed night. Winds in the eastern and central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh tonight and continue through Wed night. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas. The front will extend from central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to weaken before dissipating Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic. High pressure ridging extends across the western Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high near 25N77W. Winds are light to gentle across the area with seas 3-5 ft. Farther east, a cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from 31N53W to 23N62W, with the tail-end of the front becoming stationary to 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is along and ahead of the front from 22N to 31N between 46W and 61W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted along the front. N to NW swell continues to spread throughout the west-central Atlantic, with 12 ft seas N of 27N between 55W and 71W. Peak seas are 16 ft near 31N65W and 31N58W. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1011 mb low is analyzed near 30N28W. Strong winds are on the north and west side of the low with seas 8 to 14 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the large northerly swell will continue to affect areas east of 76W and north of 23N today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong S winds will start affecting waters offshore of Florida late tonight, rapidly increasing to gale force early Sun morning. Near gale to gale force winds will affect the waters N of 27N through Mon. Conditions will gradually improve late Tue. High pressure will prevail over the area for the middle of next week. $$ AReinhart