000 AXNT20 KNHC 151704 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will emerge off the Florida coast Sun morning. Strong south winds will begin to impact the northwest offshore waters late tonight, with winds increasing to gale-force Sun morning. Near-gale to gale force winds will affect the waters north of about 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually improve late Tue, but prior to then, mariners are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts and consider avoidance plans. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the Texas coast this morning, and will continue SE across the Gulf into tonight. Strong to gale-force northwest to north winds and very rough seas reaching the range of 12-18 ft will follow the front across much of the Gulf today and Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to near 02N22W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N22W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to 07N and E of 28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning. Moderate to fresh S winds are W of 88W ahead of a cold front that extends from the Sabine River to the Rio Grande. Scattered moderate convection is along this front. A surface trough is developing along the Mexican coast, south of this front, extending into the western Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, as high pressure centered east of the area dominates. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft, except 5 ft in the SW Gulf. For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to move east of the basin Sun afternoon, however trailing fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the eastern Gulf will gradually diminish on Mon. Aside from the hazardous conditions described above, scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, especially for the central and eastern Gulf. Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level dry air continue to support fair weather across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are across the Caribbean, except for fresh winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range. For the forecast, fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed night. Winds in the eastern and central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh tonight and continue through Wed night. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas. The front will extend from central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to weaken before dissipating Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N54W to the north coast of Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection has developed along this front, mainly N of 28N. Fresh to near gale force NW winds associated with this front will continue to affect the offshore waters N of 26N and E of 72W into this afternoon. Rough seas in northerly swell east of the Bahamas will gradually subside to 8 ft through Sun morning. Mariners over these waters should exercise caution. Weak high pressure over the NW Bahamas will retreat NE, allowing a new cold front to emerge off the Florida coast Sun morning. Strong S winds will start affecting waters offshore of Florida late tonight, then increase to gale force early Sun morning. Near gale to gale force winds will affect the waters N of 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually improve late Tue. Otherwise, the central Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge that is supporting fair weather in that region. Over the NE Atlantic, a 1011 mb low pressure has formed near 30N28W, with a trailing cold front to 22N22W. Fresh to strong N winds within 120 nm W of the low will prevail through Mon. $$ KONARIK