000 AXNT20 KNHC 151055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N58W to northern Haiti. Fresh to near gale force NW winds associated with this front will continue to affect the offshore waters N of 26N and E of 72W through later this morning. However, rough seas in northerly swell east of the Bahamas will gradually subside to 8 ft through Sun morning. Mariners over these waters should exercise caution. Atlantic Gale Warning: Marine conditions will briefly improve for the northwest waters today ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong south winds will begin to impact the northwest offshore waters tonight, with winds rapidly increasing to gale-force early Sun morning. Near-gale to gale force winds will affect the waters north of about 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually improve late Tue, but prior to then, mariners are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts and consider avoidance plans for tonight into Sun. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to move over the NW Gulf later this morning then quickly move southeastward exiting the eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon. Strong to gale-force northwest to north winds and very rough seas reaching the range of 10-16 ft will follow the front across much of the Gulf today and Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to near 02N22W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N22W to 00N41W to near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to 06N and E of 18W. A few showers are also noted from 02N to 08N between 27W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are W of 89W ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the basin later this morning. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas of 3-4 ft, except 5 ft in the SW gulf. For the forecast, strong to gale force NW to N winds and very rough seas will follow the cold front across much of the Gulf, today and Sun. The front is forecast to move east of the basin Sun afternoon, however trailing fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the eastern gulf will continue to diminish through Mon. Aside from the hazardous conditions described above, scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level dry air continue to support fair weather across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are across the Caribbean, except for fresh winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. For the forecast, fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed night. Winds in the eastern and central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh tonight and prevail through Wed night. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas. The front will extend from central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to weaken before dissipating Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on two Gale Warnings. A cold front extends from 25N65W to northern Haiti. Fresh to near gale force NW winds associated with this front will continue to affect the offshore waters N of 26N and E of 72W through later this morning. However, rough seas in northerly swell east of the Bahamas will gradually subside to 8 ft through Sun morning. A new cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong S winds will start affecting the NW offshore waters Sat night, rapidly increasing to gale force early Sun morning. Near gale to gale force winds will affect the waters N of 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually improve late Tue. Otherwise, the central Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge that is supporting fair weather in that region. Over the NE Atlantic, a cold front extending from 30N22W to 21N23W continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough seas that are forecast to prevail through Mon. $$ Ramos