170 AXNT20 KNHC 120904 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to near 01N20W. The ITCZ continues SW from this position, crossing the equator near 25W and continues to the coast of Brazil near 04S36W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the boundary east of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... The frontal boundary over the basin has dissipated, leaving behind a surface trough in the SW Gulf approximately 90 nm from the Mexican coast. Strong winds and rough seas are noted south of 21N between the trough and the coast of Mexico, including the unprotected waters outside of Veracruz. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by moderate to fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh northeasterly winds continue off of Veracruz through the early morning hours before diminishing in the afternoon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build over Gulf late this week, leading to gentle winds west of 90W. Fresh NW winds are expected in the eastern Gulf late Thu into early Fri as low pressure forms east of Florida. The next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas coast by Sat. Strong winds are expected behind this front, with gale force winds possible offshore Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient persists between high pressure north of the area and semi-permanent low pressure over Colombia. This pattern is maintaining moderate easterly flow over the majority of the Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected near the coast of Colombia with 5-7 ft seas propagating throughout the Colombian basin. A surface trough is analyzed along the southern coast of Cuba with associated thunderstorms noted south of the Guanahacabibes Peninsula in western Cuba and near Santiago de Cuba in southeastern Cuba. For the forecast, fresh to strong east to northeast winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean through tonight, with fresh winds in the passages. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most of the basin Wed through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N55W to near 24N66W, then transitions to a stationary front to 23N75W and extends to Havana, Cuba. A recent scatterometer pass has revealed fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front with rough seas found in buoy observations. Ahead of the front, the western Atlantic is dominated by gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 65W, strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow the front through Wed, affecting the NW Bahamas. Winds will diminish Wed night as the front weakens. A large area of low pressure is expected to form late Thu to the east of Florida. As this system moves northeastward and strengthens, strong to near gale force winds are possible to spread over a large area north of 24N Thu night through Fri night, with gale- force winds possible north of 28N. The next cold front will emerge off the coast of Florida late this weekend. In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, an occluded front is wrapping around a 1008 mb low pressure center located near 30N33W. This occluded front enters the discussion area near 31N28W and extends a cold front to 21N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the occlusion with scattered weak convection along the cold front. A scatterometer pass found strong northerly winds on the western periphery of the low pressure center where seas are likely 12-14 ft. 8 ft swell associated with this system extends as far south as 20N in the central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds dominate the remainder of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic with moderate sea heights. $$ Torres