000 AXNT20 KNHC 111705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends across the Florida Straits and transitions to a stationary front near 23N85W to the Bay of Campeche. Gale-force winds prevail between the front and the coast of Mexico. Very rough seas in the area are approaching 15 to 18 ft. Conditions will improve across the Gulf waters by mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 05N09W To 01N16W. The ITCZ continues from 01N16W to 04N37W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the boundary, mainly west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on the gale warning over the western Gulf. A cold front extends across the Florida Straits to 23N85W where it transitions to a stationary front to 18N93W. The gale warning is in effect between the front and the Mexican coast and continues through this afternoon. Strong northeasterlies prevail between the front and the US Gulf coast, with moderate to rough seas up to 15 ft. Cloudiness with scattered showers are observed along the frontal boundary. Conditions are currently more favorable in the Southeastern Gulf with moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, though these will build as the front approaches. For the forecast, strong winds behind the front, with gale force N winds occurring offshore of Veracruz early today, before diminishing this afternoon. Conditions will improve across the Gulf of Mexico by Wed as the front pushes well southeast of the area. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build over Gulf late this week, leading to gentle winds. The next cold front is likely to emerge off the Texas coast over the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the area continues to maintain a moderate gradient with low pressure over Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the south central Caribbean, which are generating moderate to rough seas throughout the Colombian basin. Moderate easterly winds are noted in satellite derived winds elsewhere with a gentle breeze in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the combination of a high pressure to the north and a low pressure over Colombia continues to provide a tighter gradient across the basin. This will support pulses of fresh to strong east to northeast winds across the central Caribbean through this evening, with fresh winds in the passages. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then likely push into the northwest Caribbean into mid week, while dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate winds should then continue across most of the basin late this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N63W to the central Bahamas and continues across the Florida Straits. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Elsewhere west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds are observed. Seas of 5 to 8 feet are noted in altimeter data throughout the western subtropical Atlantic ahead of the front, with 8 to 12 ft seas noted behind the front. Farther east, a cold front extends from a 1011 mb low near 31N29W to 25N47W where a stationary boundary continues to 26N50W, then transitions to a warm front to 30N55W. Scatterometer data reveals moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow behind the front with rough seas between 8 to 15 ft from N of 24N to 31N. 8 ft swell from this system extend as far south as 22N in the central Atlantic. A gentle to moderate breeze and moderate sea heights are observed elsewhere in the central and eastern tropical/subtropical Atlantic, with the exception of locally strong winds observed in satellite derived winds along a surface trough analyzed from 11N30W to 07N33W. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned front near 29N65W to the Straits of Florida will reach near 25N65W to the central Bahamas to western Cuba early Wed. Strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow the front through Wed, affecting the NW Bahamas. Winds will diminish Wed night as the front weakens. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure will form over Florida and the Bahamas on Thu. A large area of low pressure is expected to form by Thu night or early Fri as the system moves northeastward. This system is likely to cause strong to near gale force winds late this week over a large area north of 24N, with gale-force winds possible north of 29N. $$ Nepaul