000 AXNT20 KNHC 111025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near the Florida Keys to Veracruz, Mexico. Gale-force winds prevail between the front and the coast of Mexico. Very rough seas in the area are approaching 15 to 18 ft. These conditions are expected to propagate southward into the bay of Campeche by Tue. Conditions will improve across the Gulf waters by mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 05N09W To 00N16W. The ITCZ continues from 00N16W to 04N37W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on the gale warning over the western Gulf. A cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 23N91W where it Transitions to a stationary front to 18N93W. The gale warning is in effect between the front and the Mexican coast and continues through mid morning today. Strong northeasterlies prevail between the front and the US Gulf coast, with moderate to rough seas up to 15 ft confirmed by buoy data and a recent altimeter pass. Isolated thunderstorms are observed along the frontal boundary. Conditions are currently more favorable in the Southeastern Gulf with moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, though these will build as the front approaches. For the forecast, strong winds are behind the front, with gale force N winds occurring offshore of Tampico, with building seas. The gale force winds will continue offshore Tampico through this evening and move south to off Veracruz tonight through Tue morning, before diminishing Tue afternoon. Conditions will improve across the Gulf of Mexico by Wed as the front pushes well southeast of the area. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build over Gulf late this week, leading to gentle winds. The next cold front is likely to emerge off the Texas coast over the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the area continues to maintain a moderate gradient with low pressure over Colombia. A recent scatterometer pass revealed fresh to strong NE winds in the south central Caribbean generating moderate to rough seas throughout the Colombian basin. Moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere with a gentle breeze in the NW Caribbean outside of scattered thunderstorms observed in the area. For the forecast, the combination of a high pressure to the north and a low pressure over Colombia continues to provide a tighter gradient across the basin. This will support pulses of fresh to strong east to northeast winds across the central Caribbean through this evening, with fresh winds in the passages. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue night, then likely push into the NW Caribbean into mid-week, while dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate winds should then continue across most of the basin late this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N67W to South Florida coast near 25N. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front with fresh westerly winds extending approximately 180 nm ahead of the front. Elsewhere west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds are observed. Altimeter data reveals moderate seas throughout the western subtropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 65W, the front will reach near 25N65W to the central Bahamas to western Cuba early Wed. Strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow the front through Wed, affecting the NW Bahamas. Winds will diminish Wed night as the front weakens. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure will form over Florida and the Bahamas on Thu. A large area of low pressure is expected to form by Thu night or early Fri as the system moves northeastward. This system is likely to cause strong to near gale force winds late this week over a large area north of 24N, with gale-force winds possible north of 29N. Farther east, a cold front extends from a 1011 mb low near 31N28W to 24N46W where a stationary boundary continues to 24N49W, then transitions to a warm front to 30N56W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh anticyclonic flow behind the front with rough seas between 8 to 15 ft from N of 24N to 31N. 8 ft swell from this system extends as far south as 22N in the central Atlantic. A gentle to moderate breeze and moderate sea heights are observed elsewhere in the central and eastern tropical/subtropical Atlantic. $$ Torres