000 AXNT20 KNHC 101043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the Texas coast and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer pass overnight indicated the presence of strong to gale force winds behind the front south of Corpus Christi to South Padre Island. Buoy 42020 reported seas already reaching up to 11 ft earlier in the night. Strong winds are expected behind the front through the early part of the week, reaching gale force within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon, then in the Veracruz area by Mon night. Conditions will improve across the Gulf waters by mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area. Seas of 12 to 14 ft will build within 120 nm of the Mexican coast behind the front, reaching 18 to 20 ft in the SW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from southern Liberia near 05N09W to 04N13W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N13W to 03N48W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery from 01N to 06N between 11W and 22W, and scattered showers between 25W to 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and extends from Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Scatterometer pass overnight indicated the presence of strong to gale force winds behind the front south of Corpus Christi to South Padre Island. Buoy 42020 reported 11 ft earlier in the night. A Gale Warning is in effect in association with this front. Please see the Special Features section for details. A moderate NE breeze is noted in the southern Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the basin is dominated by light to gentle winds outside of thunderstorm activity and 2-4 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms is noted along and approximately 120 nm ahead of the cold front. Scattered moderate convection is also observed in the Yucatan Channel and along the northwest coast of Cuba. For the forecast, Behind the cold front, strong to gale force northerly winds will continue and move south off Veracruz today and gradually diminish by early Tue. Strong winds will follow the front through the early part of the week, with conditions improving across the basin by middle of the week as the front pushes well southeast of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong easterly winds across the majority of the central and eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Recent scatterometer data revealed strong northeasterlies in the Windward Passage. The strongest winds in the basin extend off the coast of Colombia into the central Caribbean with near gale force winds and 7-10 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the Northwestern Caribbean where scatterometer data confirms a moderate easterly breeze with 3-5 ft seas likely. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are observed roughly 90 nm west of the Cayman Islands and in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support pulses of fresh to strong east to northeast winds across the central Caribbean and the passages through Tue night. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell Will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon before decaying. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue night, then likely push into the NW Caribbean into mid week, while dissipating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 30N35W and extends SW to near 26N49W where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N60W. Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE winds behind the front with 8 to 12 ft seas based on a pair of altimeter passes and buoy observations. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed ahead of the front with 7-9 ft seas. The eastern tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure located a few degrees west of Portugal. A low pressure trough roughly 300 nm west of the Canary Islands is generating an area of isolated thunderstorms and fresh southeasterly winds. The remainder of the eastern tropical Atlantic is dominated by a moderate breeze and 7-9 ft seas. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front over SE portions of the basin will dissipate while moving east of the area today. Fresh winds and higher seas in the wake of the front will gradually diminish today. Another cold front will make its way across the Southeast Plains and move offshore Florida today, then sink across the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos through mid-week. Strong NE winds with building seas will follow this front. Low pressure may form along this front later in the week. $$ Torres