000 AXNT20 KNHC 092314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the Texas coast this evening. Strong winds will follow the front through the early part of the week, reaching gale force within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon, then in the Veracruz area by Mon night. Conditions will improve across the Gulf waters by mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will build behind the front, reaching 12 to 14 ft in the SW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from southern Liberia near 05N08W to 05N13W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N13W to 07N33W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery from 06N to 08N between 25W and 31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is currently reaching the coast of Texas and will move across the Gulf waters likely through Tue. A Gale Warning is in effect in association with this front. Please, see the Special Features section for details. A band of showers and thunderstorms is related to the front. Ahead of the front, some fog is possible in the nearshore waters off Texas. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are developing ahead of the front over the northern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail across the basin. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 1-3 ft across the coastal waters of W Florida, and near the western Yucatan peninsula. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will prevail across most of the Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast this evening. For the remainder of the forecast, please see the Special Features section. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, including within about 120 nm of the coast of northern Colombia, accompanied by 7 to 10 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are blowing across the Windward Passage along with seas of 5 to 7 ft seas. Similar wind speeds are also noted south of Hispaniola, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin with the exception of 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean, mainly N of 18N and west of 84W. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to produce isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and the passages through Tue night. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon before decaying. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue, then likely push into the NW Caribbean into late week, while dissipating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters near 31N42 and extends SW to near 25N61W where it begins to dissipate. Remnants of the frontal boundary will possible showers are still noted reaching the Central Bahamas. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted behind the front to about 55W per scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the wake of the front based on a pair of altimeter passes and buoy observations. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are observed elsewhere N of the front. High pressure is in the wake of the front, with a 1033 mb center located N of area near 36N59W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located well E of the Azores. A surface trough is analyzed from near the Madeira Islands to just W of the Canary Islands. This trough is the reflection of an upper- level low that is producing some shower activity over the above mentioned islands. Fresh to locally strong winds are on either side of the trough axis with seas of 8-10 ft. Similar wind speeds are also noted N of the ITCZ to about 16N-17N. Seas in this area are in the 8-9 ft range. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front over SE portions of the SW N Atlantic will continue to dissipate while moving east of the area into tonight. Fresh winds and higher seas in the wake of the front will gradually diminish through tonight. Another cold front will move offshore Florida Mon, then sink across the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through mid-week. Strong NE winds will follow this front. Low pressure may form along this front later in the week. $$ GR