000 AXNT20 KNHC 091757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jan 09 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning... A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight, reaching the SW Gulf by Mon morning. Gale-force winds following the front will reach within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon, then within 60 nm of Veracruz Mon night into early Tue. Conditions will improve across the basin mid-week, as the front pushes well to the southeast of the area. The sea heights will build to 6 to 9 feet behind the front, reaching 7 to 11 feet in the west central Gulf, and 9 to 14 feet in the SW Gulf from Mon night into Tue. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about the warning situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through 04N/05N between the Prime Meridian and 12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W, to 07N33W 04N39W 04N49W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 28W and 32W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 25W and 48W, and within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 30W and 35W. Rainshowers are possible from the ITCZ southward from 40W westward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front currently is moving into the eastern sections of Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 92W eastward. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail across the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft in the NW and north central Gulf where winds were fresh to strong earlier. A surface ridge passes from central Georgia to the west central Gulf of Mexico, along the coast of Mexico near 24N. Fresh SE to S winds will prevail ahead of the next cold front, that will move off the Texas coast this evening. Strong winds will follow the front through the early part of the week, reaching gale force within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon, then Veracruz Mon night. Conditions will improve across the basin mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated to widely scattered rainshowers, throughout the entire area. Strong to near gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, are within 300 nm of the coast of Colombia. Strong winds are from 14N to 19N between 63W and 70W. Fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and the passages through the early part of the week. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon before decaying. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and may push a bit into the NW Caribbean into late week, while dissipating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N47W to 25N60W. The front is dissipating cold from 25N60W to 24N70W. Strong to near gale-force winds are from the cold front northward between 46W and 54W. Strong winds are within 130 nm to the north of the cold front between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong winds are from Cuba northward, from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds are from the ITCZ to 14N between 24W and 34W, from the ITCZ to 18N between 34W and 44W, and from 22N southward between 44W and 60W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet to the north of the line 31N20W 07N30W 05N40W 03N49W 21N50W 31N33W. The comparatively highest sea heights are from 20N to 26N between 20W and 26W. A surface trough is near the Canary Islands, along 30N17W 24N20W. Fresh winds are within 420 nm of the trough on the NW side from 26N northward. Strong winds are within 220 nm of the surface trough on the SE side, close to the coast of Africa from 24N to 27N. A cold front in SE parts of the basin will dissipate while moving east of the area into tonight. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas in the wake of the front will diminish gradually through tonight. Another cold front will move offshore Florida Mon, then sink across the Bahamas through mid- week. Strong NE winds will likely follow this front. Low pressure may form along this front mid-week. $$ mt/sk