000
AXNT20 KNHC 090956
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move 
off the Texas coast tonight, reaching the SW Gulf by Mon morning.
Gale force winds following the front will reach within 60 nm of 
Tamaulipas Mon, then within 60 nm of Veracruz Mon night into early 
Tue. Conditions will improve across the basin mid-week as the 
front pushes well southeast of the area. 6 to 9 ft seas will build
behind the front, reaching 7 to 11 ft in the W-central Gulf, and 9
to 14 ft in the SW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Please read the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra-Leone near
08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N15W to 04N26W 
to 07N34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery 
inland over NE Brazil near the ITCZ, extending offshore from the 
equator to 04N between 46W and 51W. Similar convection is noted
from 05N to 08N between 27W and 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front is along the northern Gulf coast. No significant 
convection exists along the frontal boundary over the waters.
A weak surface trough is in the SW Gulf just west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula with no associated convection. Moderate to fresh E-SE 
winds prevail across the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf,
and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft in the NW and N-central
Gulf where winds were fresh to strong earlier.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow 
will prevail across most of the Gulf ahead of the next cold front 
forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to strong 
winds will follow the front through the early part of the week, 
reaching gale force within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon, then Veracruz 
Mon night and early Tue. Conditions will improve across the basin 
mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Azores high and the Colombian
low continues to support strong winds noted by earlier scatterometer
data within 120 nm of the coast of northern Colombia, accompanied
by 7 to 10 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are blowing across
the approach to the Windward Passage along with 5 to 7 ft seas,
with similar winds south of Hispaniola, in the lee of Cuba, and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6
ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean, mainly west of
85W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support 
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
and the passages through the early part of the week. Mainly 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will 
impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters through the early part of 
the week before decaying. A cold front will approach the Yucatan 
Channel Tue, pushing southeast through the NW Caribbean while 
weakening through mid-week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N52W and extends SW to the 
Central Bahamas where the front stalls. North of the front, fresh
to locally strong N to NE winds were noted on earlier scatterometer
data. Seas are 8 to 12 ft north of the front, except 5 to 7 ft
north of 28N and west of 75W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft south of the
front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the
vicinity of the front.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is under the 
influence of the Azores high. Gentle to moderate return flow is 
noted north of 24N, between the cold front and 35W. Moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds prevail over the remainder of the tropical 
Atlantic, with locally strong winds noted north of 23N and east of
20W. Seas are mainly 8 to 11 ft in mixed northerly swell across
the open tropical Atlantic waters, except 5 to 7 ft in the area of
gentle to moderate winds.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move SE across the
basin through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to locally 
strong NE winds and building seas are in the wake of the front as 
high pressure builds toward the area. Another cold front will move
offshore Florida early Mon, then sink across the Bahamas through 
mid-week. Strong NE winds will likely follow this front. Low 
pressure may form along this front by mid-week.

$$
Lewitsky