000 AXNT20 KNHC 090532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast Sunday night, reaching the SW Gulf by Monday morning. Gale force winds following the front will reach within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Monday, then Veracruz Mon night and Tue. Conditions will improve across the basin mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area. 6 to 9 ft seas will build behind the front, reaching 7 to 11 ft in the W-central and SW Gulf by Mon night into Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra-Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N15W to 06N25W to 06N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered strong convection is evident on satellite imagery just inland over NE Brazil near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends across the far northeastern waters along 29N. No significant convection exists along the frontal boundary. Moderate E winds are east of 90W while fresh to locally strong SE winds are west of 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the NW Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the stationary front across the northern Gulf coastal waters will dissipate overnight. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will prevail across most of the Gulf this weekend ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front through early next week, reaching gale force within 60 nm of Tamaulipas Mon, then Veracruz Mon night and Tue. Conditions will improve across the basin mid- week as the front pushes well southeast of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Azores high and the Colombian low continues to support strong winds noted by scatterometer satellite imagery within 120 nm of the coast of northern Colombia, accompanied by 6 to 9 ft seas. Elsewhere in the basin, fresh trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. Scattered showers and storms are noted over the Gulf of Honduras, west of 85W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and the passages into early next week. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week before decaying. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue, pushing southeast through the NW Caribbean while weakening through mid-week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area near 31N55W and extends SW to the NW Bahamas where the front stalls. North of the front, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are noted on scatterometer satellite data. Seas are 6 to 8 ft N of the front and east of 76W. West of 76W to the coast of Florida, seas are 3 to 6 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of the Azores high. Gentle to moderate return flow is noted north of 24N, between the cold front and 35W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with locally strong winds noted east the Canary Islands. E of 50W, seas are 8 to 10 ft, with the highest seas near the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move SE across the basin through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected in the wake of the front as high pressure builds toward the area. Seas will also build across the Bahamas, Florida Straits, and Windward Passage. Another cold front will move offshore Florida early Mon, then sink across the Bahamas through mid-week. Strong NE winds will likely follow this front. Low pressure may form along this front by mid-week. $$ Mora