000 AXNT20 KNHC 080925 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 06N35W and continues southwestward to the mouth of the Amazon River in Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W and 45W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 33W and 49W. Similar convection is noted from the equator to 02N between 47W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Fort Myers Florida to 27N90W where it becomes a warm front to 1016 mb low pressure near Brownsville Texas. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the NW Gulf offshore of Texas where seas are 4 to 6 ft, locally 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the front from 26N to 28N between 89W and 94W. Two surface troughs are analyzed south of the front, one offshore of Mexico from 24N97W to near Tampico, and another from 22N90W to the eastern Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the eastern trough. Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow dominates the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere north of 25N, and 2 to 4 ft south of 25N, except 1 to 3 ft in the southeast Gulf. For the forecast, the front will lift northward while weakening today. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will prevail across most of the Gulf this weekend ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front through early next week, possibly to gale force within 60 nm of Veracruz Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The basin is free of any significant surface features over the waters, however the pressure gradient between low pressure over northern Colombia and high pressure north of the basin supports fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, along with 7 to 9 ft seas. Fresh winds are noted across the approach to the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft in the western Caribbean, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. Isolated to scattered showers are noted across the basin with the trade wind flow. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and the passages into early next week. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week before decaying. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near Bermuda to across the northern Bahamas where it becomes stationary to near Jupiter Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds are north of the front, as well as north of 29N and east of the front to 62W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft north of the front, except 7 to 9 ft seas are found north of 29N between 62W and 75W. A surface trough is analyzed south of the front from 25N65W to the eastern Dominican Republic near 19N69W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A surface trough is analyzed in the far eastern Atlantic from 24N27W to 15N30W with scattered convection nearby. The remainder of the Atlantic remains under the influence of a 1036 mb Azores high. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure over western Africa supports strong NE winds from 26N to 31N between 14W and 28W and through the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail east of 50W, locally strong from 09N to 27N between 30W and 50W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere west 65W, and 6 to 9 ft west of 50W. East of 60W seas are mainly 8 to 13 ft in mixed northerly swell. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will move southeast across the basin through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected in the wake of the front as high pressure builds toward the area. Seas will also build across the Bahamas, Florida Straits, and Windward Passage. Another cold front will move offshore Florida by early Mon, then sink across the Bahamas through Tue night. Strong NE winds will likely follow this front. $$ Lewitsky