077 AXNT20 KNHC 062316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: Gale-force N to NE winds are forecast to continue within about 90 nm of the coast of Morocco in the Meteo- France marine zone Agadir through 07/0000 UTC tonight. Expect seas of 10 to 14 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N30W. The ITCZ continues from 04N30W to 02N39W to the coast of Brazil at the equator and 48W. No significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Tranquil conditions prevail across the Gulf of Mexico, due to ridging associated with a weak 1017 mb high pressure centered near Lake Okeechobee. A weak surface trough stretches from 30N87W to the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Another weak surface trough extends from the SW Louisiana coast near 29N93W to 26N96W to 22N96W. A cold front is analyzed just inland over Texas. Surface observations and recent ASCAT data depict gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin, except in the NE Gulf where moderate S winds are observed. Seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf today. A cold front is forecast to move off the N Gulf Coast this evening, bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds across the northern Gulf tonight. The front will stall from near central Florida to northeastern Mexico Fri and dissipate by this weekend. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will then prevail across most of the Gulf Fri night through Sat night ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast by late Sun. Strong winds will follow the front early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dry and stable airmass continues to dominate the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is analyzed in the NE Caribbean. The pressure gradient due to a robust 1039 mb subtropical ridge near the Azores and lower pressures over northern South America supports fresh to locally strong trades across the central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring near the Colombian coast. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, the passages and the Gulf of Honduras through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning E of 35W. A cold front extends from 31N77W to 27N78W just north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong southerly winds are present N of 28N and W of 74W. Weak surface troughs are analyzed from 27N69W to 21N72W and from 21N61W to the northern Leeward Islands. The rest of the basin is governed by a robust 1039 mb subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores, allowing for fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict a large area of fresh trades from 20N to 30N E of 53W. Fresh trades are also noted from 05N to 13N between 42W and 50W. Elsewhere, moderate trades prevail. Seas of 6-10 ft are occurring over a large region in the central and eastern Atlantic N of 05N and E of 70W, with the highest seas located from 27N to 31N between 47W and 52W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail W of 70W, except in the Bahamas where seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front will move off NE Florida late tonight/early Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are expected along and following the front, north of 29N, tonight and Fri. High pressure building in the wake of this front will support fresh to strong winds this weekend across the Bahamas, Florida Straits and Windward Passage. A second cold front is forecast to move offshore of Florida early Mon. Fresh to strong N winds will likely follow the front. $$ Mahoney/GR