000 AXNT20 KNHC 031043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Warning... A strong cold front is moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds continue off the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Seas are up to 15 ft from the latest buoy data across the central Gulf, with seas to 20 ft near the gale-force winds. The front will continue moving SE, and exit the basin later today. The gale- force winds are forecast to diminish to less than gale- force this morning. The wind speeds and the sea heights will subside by tonight. ...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Warning... The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will exit the Georgia-South Carolina coastline, and move into the W Atlantic Ocean early this morning. Expect gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet offshore, N of 30N between 76W and 80W. Gale-force winds are expected to diminish by late this afternoon, with winds becoming moderate to fresh by tonight. Seas will subside by Wed. ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Warning... The pressure gradient from the low in Colombia combined with the high pressure NE of the basin will bring brief gale force winds near the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Seas are expected to build to 11 ft tonight and 10 ft Tue night. Strong winds will continue across the central Caribbean through the rest of the week. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about each warning situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N10W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N37W. A surface trough is W of the ITCZ from 08N39W to 01N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 09W and 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force warning for the Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front stretches from the central Florida coast near 27N83W to the northeast Yucatan near 21N87W. Ahead of the front, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail. Behind the front, widespread strong winds are noted across the entire basin with gale-force winds continuing near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Showers are along and ahead of the front. Seas are building to 20 ft near Veracruz, and buoys in the central Gulf are reporting 14-15 ft seas. Buoy 42039 in the NE Gulf reached to 14 ft late tonight and is now at 12 ft. Seas in the NW and north- central Gulf are hovering near 8 ft. High pressure is building quickly behind the front, stretching across the western and central Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will move quickly out of the basin later today. Gale- force winds are ongoing across the SW Gulf with strong winds covering most of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds continue in the extreme eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Rough seas are also ongoing behind the front in the western and central Gulf. Gale-force winds will end by this morning, with the widespread strong winds and rough seas gradually subsiding by tonight. Light to gentle variable winds are expected Tue increasing to gentle to moderate speeds Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force warning for the Caribbean. The tight pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high near 29N66W in the Atlantic and the low pressure in Colombia is maintaining fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, with light to gentle winds in the NW basin. Ahead of the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico, showers and thunderstorms stretch along the Yucatan and Belize coast. Seas are reaching 11 ft near the highest winds in the central Caribbean with 4-5 ft seas in the eastern and NW Caribbean. For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force near the Colombian coast tonight and Tue night, with strong winds continuing in the central Caribbean through the week. Meanwhile, trade winds in the E basin will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds today as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic waters. The tail of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean later today and bring fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front will dissipate by late tonight into Tue morning with winds and seas improving by Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force warning for the Atlantic Ocean. The strong cold front that is anticipated to across the Atlantic today is pushing off the Florida coast. Gale-force winds are likely occurring off the NE Florida coast, N of 30N between 78W and 80W. Seas are ranging 8-12 ft. Showers are along the front. Meanwhile, high pressure stretches across the rest of the western and central Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high near 29N66W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N33W to 21N43W to 22N57W. A trough is behind the front from 30N38W to 25N46W to 30N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the front from 22N to 31N between 33W and 41W. Behind the front, moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted with seas 8 to 10 ft. High pressure stretches across the rest of the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1031 mb high in the Iberian Peninsula. For the forecast, the strong cold front will enter the NW offshore waters early this morning. Gale-force winds will begin as the front pushes off the Florida coast, N of 30N and W of 78W. Rough seas are also expected to build with the front. Gale- force conditions will diminish late this afternoon as the front continues to push farther east away from the area. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas on Wed. $$ AReinhart