000 AXNT20 KNHC 022300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... .Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front is moving across the central and SW Gulf of Mexico this evening. Behind it, near-gale to gale winds have developed off the SE Texas/NE Mexico coast and spread southward to the Mexican waters near Veracruz. Midday altimeter data showed seas rapidly building, with sea heights of 12-16 ft extending from offshore of SE Texas to the Mexican coastal waters along 22N. The front will continue moving SE and reach from SW Florida to the central Yucatan Peninsula by Mon morning. Gales are expected to continue across the Mexican near and offshore waters through sunset and then remain near the Veracruz area through midnight before diminishing below gale force. Winds and seas will subside tonight through Mon from NW to SE across the basin, with the front exiting the Gulf basin by sunset Mon. .Western Atlantic Gale Warning... The same cold front described above will exit the Georgia-S Carolina coastline and move into the W Atlantic early Mon morning. Expect gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 8 to 14 ft offshore from the N Florida-Georgia coast by dawn Mon morning. Both winds and seas should begin to subside late Mon afternoon, as the front moves E farther into the W Atlantic, and away from the USA coastline. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on both gale warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A weak monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ stretches from S of Cote Divoire at 04N04W through 05N37W to N of Belem, Brazil at 03N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 02N to 06.5N between 05W and 37W, including the coast of Liberia and Cote Divoire. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N to 06N between 37W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a gale warning for the W Gulf. A strong cold front stretches southwestward from Pensacola Bay, Florida to the Mexican coast to the SE of Veracruz along 95.5W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 60 nm southeast of the front. Gale winds with strong gale-force gusts and seas of 8 to 18 ft prevail near and behind the front. Farther S and E, a surface ridge extends westward through the Straits of Florida to the central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found over the central and NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward, reaching SW Florida to the central Yucatan by Mon morning and then moving through the Straits of Florida and across W Cuba late afternoon through evening. Strong gale conditions across the NW and SW basin late this afternoon will gradually become confined to the waters offshore of Veracruz tonight. Seas will peak at 10 to 18 ft this evening through early tonight across the waters W of 90W. Winds and seas will gradually subside from NW to SE through Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds are expected Tue, then increasing to gentle to moderate Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight surface pressure gradient between the 1021 mb Bermuda high pressure center, and lower pressures near the Panama/Colombia border is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers across the Gulf of Honduras and extend northward to near 20N. Fresh to strong trades and seas at 8 to 12 ft are in the central basin S of 16N between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh trades with seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen over the E and SW basin. Moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the NW basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered S of the Bermuda is forecast to begin to shift ENE on Mon as the Gulf of Mexico front moves into the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue tonight across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. Trade winds in the E basin will diminish to gentle to moderate on Mon as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic waters. The tail of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon afternoon, supporting fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel through Tue morning, when the front is forecast to weaken as a stationary front from western Cuba to Belize. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a gale warning for the W Atlantic. A cold front curves southwestward a low SW of the Azores through 31N36W to 22N48W to 24N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident near and up to 90 nm SE of the front N of 24N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. NE Fresh to strong winds with seas at 89 to 12 ft are noted near and N of the cold front, N of 26N between 38W and 52W. A 1021 mb high S of Bermuda is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft from the Greater Antilles to 31N between 62W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther E, the Atlantic ridge is promoting gentle to moderate winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft in N to NE swell to the N of 20N between the NW African coast and 55W. S of 20N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft prevail across the Tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda high pressure will weaken and begin to move ENE this evening ahead of a strong cold front that will enter the NW offshore waters late tonight into Mon. Strong to near-gale force southerly winds will prevail this evening to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front, then reaching gale force N of 30N behind the front early on Mon. Gale-force conditions will diminish late Mon afternoon as the front moves away from the area. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the E of the Bahamas on Wed. $$ Stripling