000 AXNT20 KNHC 021805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... .Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico. Behind it, near-gale to gale winds have developed off the SE Texas/NE Mexico coast. As the front continues to push southeastward, these winds will reach strong-gale force and spread to the W central Gulf near noon; and the Bay of Campeche by early this evening. Seas of 10 to 13 ft will quickly rise to between 13 and 16 ft this afternoon. Winds and seas will begin to subside late tonight at the NW Gulf, then Mon morning at the SW Gulf. .Western Atlantic Gale Warning... The same cold front described above will exit the Georgia-S Carolina coastline and move into the W Atlantic early Mon morning. Expect gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 8 to 14 ft offshore from the N Florida-Georgia coast by dawn Mon morning. Both winds and seas should begin to subside late Mon afternoon, as the front moves E farther into the W Atlantic, and away from the USA coastline. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on both gale warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A weak monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ stretches from S of Cote Divoire at 04N03W through 04N25W to N of Belem, Brazil at 03N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 02N to 07N between 03W and 48W, including the coast of Liberia and Cote Divoire. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a gale warning for the W Gulf. A strong cold front stretches southwestward from near New Orleans to near La Pesca, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 60 nm southeast of the front. Gale winds with strong-gale gusts and seas at 11 to 13 ft are present near and behind the front. Farther S and E, a surface ridge extends southwestward from S Florida through the Bay of Campeche to S Mexico. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are found over the W central and N central Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the strong cold front over the NW Gulf is forecast to move quickly southeastward, reaching E of the Gulf by Mon morning. Strong gale conditions are expected to spread across the NW and SW basin today. Winds and seas associated with the front will gradually subside through Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds are expected Tue, then increasing to gentle to moderate Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight surface pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center, and lower pressures near the Panama/Colombia border is maintaining a ENE to E trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers for the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong trades and seas at 8 to 11 ft are in the central basin between 72W and 80W. Moderate to fresh trades with seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen over the E and SW basin. Moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the NW basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered E of the Bahamas is forecast to remain nearly-stationary today, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. Trade winds in the E basin will diminish to gentle to moderate on Mon as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic waters. The tail of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning, supporting fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel through Tue morning when the front is forecast to weaken as a stationary front from western Cuba to Belize. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a gale warning for the W Atlantic. A cold front curves southwestward a low SW of the Azores across 31N38W through 24N44W to 26N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident near and up to 80 nm SE of the front W of 44W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. Moderate to fresh winds with seas at 8 to 11 ft are noted near and N of the cold front, N of 26N between 35W and 55W. A 1022 mb high E of the Bahamas is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft from the Greater Antilles to 31N between 62W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther E, the Atlantic ridge is promoting gentle to moderate winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft N of 20N between the NW African coast and 55W. S of 20N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary today. The high pressure will weaken and move E this evening ahead of a strong cold front that will enter the NW offshore waters late tonight into Mon. Strong to near-gale force southerly winds will prevail today to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front, then reaching gale force N of 30N early on Mon. Gale-force conditions will diminish late Mon afternoon as the front moves away from the area. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the E of the Bahamas on Wed. $$ Chan