000 AXNT20 KNHC 021053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strengthening winter storm is going to move east-northeastward, from the USA central Plains to the Northeast USA, through Monday. A strong cold front associated with this storm will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning, reaching the SW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Gale-force winds are expected to develop over the NW Gulf at around 12Z, reach 45 kt across the W central Gulf near 18Z, and then spread across the SW corner of the Gulf waters tonight. Seas will peak to 16 ft with the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish on Mon morning. ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... The same described above will exit the Georgia-S Carolina coastline and move into the W Atlantic tonight. Expect gale- force winds and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet offshore from the N Florida-Georgia coast by early Monday morning. The wind speeds and the sea heights should begin to subside late on Monday afternoon, as the front moves more to the east, into the W Atlantic, and away from the USA coastline. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on each gale-force wind situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 01N-08N between 10W-44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale warning in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 28N68W, through the NW Bahamas, through Florida along 26N, into the central/south central Gulf of Mexico. A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the ridge and developing low pressure in central Texas, is supporting fresh to strong southerly winds in most of the Gulf, except for the E edge along the Florida coast with moderate winds. The sea heights range from 7 to 9 ft in the NW and N central Gulf, from 4 to 6 ft in the SW and S central Gulf, and from 2 to 4 ft in the E Gulf, including in the Straits of Florida. Fresh return flow is across the Gulf W of 86W ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas today. Strong to gale conditions will begin at 12Z and continue through the day across the western half of the basin. The front is forecast to move east of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will subside gradually through Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds are expected Tue, increasing to gentle to moderate speeds Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center, and lower pressures near the Panama/Colombia border, is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade wind pattern in the entire basin. Fresh to strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from 8 to 11 ft, are in the central basin between 67W and 80W. Moderate trade winds and sea heights that range from 4 to 6 ft are in the NW basin, including in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trade winds and sea heights that range from 6 to 8 ft cover the remainder of the basin. High pressure centered E of the Bahamas is forecast to remain nearly-stationary through today, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, the central Caribbean Sea, and parts of the SW basin. Trade winds in the E basin will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Mon as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic waters. The tail of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan Channel through Tue morning when the front is forecast to weaken as a stationary front from western Cuba to Belize. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale warning in effect for the W Atlantic. A 1022 mb high is centered near 28N69W. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N39W to 24N49W to 31N61W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are near the cold front, N of 26N between 46W and 54W. Residual NW swell is keeping sea heights that range from 7 to 11 ft from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 40W eastward. Sea heights range from 7 to 9 ft within 420 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W and 50W, and from 22N northward between 50W and 56W. The sea heights range from 4 to 7 ft elsewhere from 40W westward. The Atlantic ridge is promoting light to gentle winds. Gentle to moderate, with locally fresh NE to SE trade winds, cover the waters that are from 18N southward, from Africa westward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are within 250 nm to the east of the Florida coast, from Lake Okeechobee northward. High pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary today. The high pressure will weaken and move east this evening ahead of a strong cold front that will enter the NW offshore waters late tonight into Mon. Strong to near gale force southerly winds will prevail today to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front then reaching gale force N of 30N early on Mon. Gale force conditions will diminish late Mon afternoon as the front moves away from the area. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas on Wed. $$ ERA