000 AXNT20 KNHC 020533 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning... A strengthening winter storm is going to move east-northeastward, from the USA central Plains to the Northeast USA, through Monday. A strong cold front, that is associated with this storm, will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning, reaching the SW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. Near gale-force to gale-force winds are expected to arrive in the NW Gulf on Sunday morning, across the W central Gulf near noon, and then reach the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday afternoon. The sea heights will range from 11 feet to 15 feet in the NW Gulf by early Sunday evening, and then peak with a range from 17 feet to 20 feet, and spread to the W central Gulf on Sunday night, before reaching the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico early on Monday morning. ...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... The cold front, that will be moving through the Gulf of Mexico, will exit the Georgia-S Carolina coastline, and move into the W Atlantic Ocean on Sunday night. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights that will range from 10 feet to 13 feet offshore from the N Florida-Georgia coast by early Monday morning. The wind speeds and the sea heights should begin to subside late on Monday afternoon, as the front moves more to the east, into the W Atlantic Ocean, and away from the USA coastline. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on each gale-force wind situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to 05N20W 03N30W 01N40W, to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are within 270 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 28N68W, through the NW Bahamas, through Florida along 26N, into the central/south central Gulf of Mexico. A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the ridge and developing low pressure in central Texas, is supporting fresh to strong southerly winds in most of the Gulf, except for the E edge along the Florida coast with moderate winds. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet in the NW and N central Gulf. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the SW and S central Gulf. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the E Gulf, including in the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong return flow is across the Gulf W of 86W ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas late tonight into early Sun. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow this front across the basin, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night. The front is forecast to move east of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will subside gradually through Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds are expected Tue, increasing to gentle to moderate speeds Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight surface pressure gradient, that is between the Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center, and lower pressures near the Panama/Colombia border, is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade wind pattern in the entire basin. Fresh to strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 11 feet, are in the central basin between 67W and 80W. Moderate trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the NW basin, including in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, cover the remainder of the basin. A persistent band of convergent trade winds is triggering scattered rainshowers, from NE Venezuela to 15N74W, to the western coastal sections of Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, mostly from 73W eastward, and possibly in the SW corner of the area. High pressure centered E of the Bahamas is forecast to remain nearly-stationary through Sun, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, the central Caribbean Sea, and parts of the SW basin. Trade winds in the E basin will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Mon as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic waters. The tail of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan Channel through Tue morning when the front is forecast to weaken as a stationary front from western Cuba to Belize. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front passes through 31N40W 25N50W, beyond 31N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the rest of the front. A surface trough, that is remaining from an early and already-dissipated frontal boundary, is 31N25W 25N35W 16N46W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 150 nm to the northwest of the trough. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are near the cold front, N of 26N between 46W and 54W. Residual NW swell is keeping sea heights that range from 7 feet to 11 feet from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet within 420 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W and 50W, and from 22N northward between 50W and 56W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from 40W westward. The Atlantic Ocean ridge is promoting light to gentle winds. Gentle to moderate, with locally fresh, NE to SE trade winds, cover the waters that are from 18N southward, from Africa westward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are within 250 nm to the east of the Florida coast, from Lake Okeechobee northward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N68W, about 490 nm to the NE of the central Bahamas. A surface ridge is along 16N50W 28N68W 24N85W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from the area that is to the southwest of the surface trough, northwestward in the direction of the 1022 mb high pressure center, and to the west of the cold front. High pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through Sun. The high pressure will weaken and move east on Sun evening ahead of a strong cold front that will enter the NW offshore waters late Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front starting Sat night, increasing to near gale force speeds Sun night and to gale force N of 30N early on Mon. Gale force conditions will diminish late Mon afternoon as the front moves away from the area. Building seas, associated with the front, will subside to the east of the Bahamas on Wed. $$ mt/era