000 AXNT20 KNHC 011026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... .Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A developing winter storm is forecast to track east-northeastward across the US central Plains to Great Lakes region this weekend. A strong cold front associated with this storm will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning, reaching the SW Gulf Sun afternoon. Behind this front, near-gale to gale winds are expected to arrive at the NW Gulf Sun morning, W central Gulf near noon and then Bay of Campeche by late Sun afternoon. Seas behind the front will reach 10 to 16 ft across the NW Gulf by sunset Sun, then spread to the SW and central Gulf by Sun night, and eventually to the Bay of Campeche early Mon morning. .Western Atlantic Gale Warning... The cold front described above is also moving across the western Atlantic on Sun night, with gale force winds expected to develop by Mon 09Z mainly N of 30N between 76W-80W. These conditions will dissipate by Mon evening as the front moves away from the area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ extends from 06N10W to 02N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5S to 06N between 10W and 30W, and from 02N to 07N and W of 34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning issued for the NW/SW Gulf. A surface ridge stretches westward from the W Atlc across S Florida and the central Gulf to eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this ridge and a low pressure over S Texas/NE Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft across the W Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the surface high E of the Bahamas will remain nearly stationary through Sun supporting fresh to strong speeds currently as the pressure gradient increases ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas early on Sun. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow this front across the basin, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night. The front is forecast to move east of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will gradually subside through Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tight gradient between a 1020 mb high near 25N69W and lower pressures near the Panama-Colombia border is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found over the S central basin, N of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh trades and seas at 5 to 6 ft are present for the E and NW basin. Moderate to fresh trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered N of Hispaniola is forecast to remain nearly-stationary through Sun, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. The tail of a cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front will stall from W Cuba to Belize by Mon night before dissipating early Tue. Winds will diminish to moderate speeds over the NW and E Caribbean on Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning issued for the W Atlantic. A surface high is centered near 25N72W. To the east, a 1009 mb low is analyzed near 33N45W, with its associated warm front extending from the low to 26N45W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the low and front, mainly N of 27N. A stationary front extends from 31N23W to 19N48W. Light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft from 22N to 29N between 57W and the Florida-Georgia coast. N of 29N, moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present between 50W and Georgia coast, and also W of Canary Islands between 18W and 30W. Larger NW swell is generating seas at 10 to 14 ft N of 23N between 24W and 53W, despite the presence of light to gentle winds. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found from the Equator to 17N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle NE to SE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through Sun. The high pressure will weaken and move east on Sun evening ahead of a strong cold front approaches from the west on Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front, increasing to near gale force speeds Sun night, and to gale force early on Mon mainly N of 30N. Gale force conditions will diminish through Mon afternoon as the front moves away from the area. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas by mid-week. $$ ERA