000 AXNT20 KNHC 010558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning... The 36-hour forecast, from the 01/0000 UTC forecast, consists of: a cold front along 29N91W 24N97W. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights that will be building toward 8 feet, from 26N to 29N between 94W and 97W, in the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N17W, 02N25W, 01N38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward from 50W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes from an Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 26N73W, through the NW Bahamas, through Florida along 26N, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. toward the Texas Gulf coast between the upper part of the coast and the central Texas Gulf coast. Fresh-to-strong SE winds are within 360 nm of the Texas coast. Near gale-force winds are from 100 nm to 180 nm of the coast of Texas between 94W and 96W. Fresh winds are blowing through the Straits of Florida. Moderate breezes or slower cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Surface high pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain nearly stationary through Sun supporting moderate to locally fresh return flow across the central and western basin, increasing to fresh to strong speeds tonight as the pressure gradient increases ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas early on Sun. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow this front across the basin, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night. The front is forecast to move east of the Gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will subside gradually through Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A remnant cloud line is along 14N60W 15N66W 15N70W, to NE Nicaragua. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the cloud line. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 14N southward from 70W eastward, and in the SW corner of the area. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet within 360 nm to the north of the coast of Colombia between 70W and 80W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Near gale-force winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Strong winds cover much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea from the Greater Antilles southward between 64W and 80W. Fresh-to-moderate breezes cover the rest of the area. High pressure centered E of the Bahamas is forecast to remain nearly-stationary through Sun, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. The tail of a cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front will stall from western Cuba to Belize by Mon night before dissipating early on Tue. Winds will diminish to moderate speeds over the NW and E Caribbean on Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N23W 27N30W 21N40W 19N48W. A surface trough, that is remaining from an early and already-dissipated frontal boundary, is within 260 nm to the SE of the cold front, from 15N to 28N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that passes through 31N20W 18N30W 13N40W 12N50W 12N60W. A warm front/cold front/low pressure center covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward between 43W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N northward between 40W and 60W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet in much of the area that is between 30W and 60W, and to the northwest of the line 31N13W 19N30W. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 13 feet from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 13N to 22N between 50W and 60W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, from 60W westward. Fresh to strong winds are from 15N southward between 35W and 60W; and from 28N northward within 150 nm to the east of the 46W/47W warm front. Fresh winds are from 27N northward between 40W and 72W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N73W, about 190 nm to the NE of the central Bahamas. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward from 50W westward. High pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through Sun. The high pressure will weaken and move east on Sun evening ahead of a strong cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front Sat night, increasing to near gale force speeds Sun, and to gale force Sun night N of 30N. Gale force conditions will diminish Mon morning. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas by mid-week. $$ mt/era