000 AXNT20 KNHC 302306 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A stationary front reaching from the eastern Azores to the central Atlantic near 20N37W will dissipate west of 30W through the day today. A second, reinforcing cold front stretching from 31N40W to 31N56W will move across the waters north of 25N and east of 50W through tonight. Minimal gale force winds are ongoing near 31N39W with very rough seas reaching to 18 ft. Swell to 8 ft is also reaching south of 20N in the central Atlantic. The gale force winds will end by tonight with the fresh to strong winds diminishing through Fri as the front stalls along 27N. Seas to 12 ft will linger through Fri north of 25N between 35W and 55W. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas will build through Fri, supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea through Sun. Winds pulsing to minimal gale force off Colombia are expected tonight with seas up to 12 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 02N31W to 01N42W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted from the equator to 07N along the length of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over eastern Mexico is supporting moderate SE to S flow across the majority of the Gulf. Seas are predominately 3 to 5 ft across the basin. No significant convection is noted. For the forecast, surface high pressure centered NE of the central Bahamas will remain nearly stationary through Sun and support moderate to locally fresh return flow across the central and western basin, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night as the pressure gradient increases ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas by late Sat night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow this front, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night. The front is forecast to move east of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will gradually subside through Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details about the gale warning in effect for the southern Caribbean. A 1021 mb high pressure centered north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. A recent altimeter pass indicated seas in the area are 7 to 9 ft. A shearline is analyzed in the eastern Caribbean along 15N with a fresh NE winds north of the feature and moderate NE winds to the south. Seas in this area range from 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of the central Bahamas is forecast to remain nearly-stationary through Sun, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. Brief gale force winds are expected off Colombia tonight. The tail of a cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front will stall from western Cuba to Belize by Mon night before dissipating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the gale warning in effect for the eastern Atlantic. A 1021 mb high pressure located northeast of the central Bahamas near 26N68W dominates the weather over the western Atlantic. This is generating mostly light to gentle anticyclonic flow and 3 to 5 ft seas west of 65W. Buoys are reporting moderate SW winds off the northeast Florida coast, along with moderate E winds and 6 ft seas south of 22N. In the central Atlantic, a strong cold front has crossed 31N this morning bringing a large area of increasing strong to minimal gale force winds and 12-18 ft building seas from N of 27N between 29W and 51W. The 8 ft seas extend as far south as 17N in the central Atlantic. Farther east, a stationary front extends from the eastern Atlantic near 31N24W to 20N37W. The tail-end of the boundary is dissipating from 20N37W to 18N46W with a shearline stretching from 18N46W to the Lesser Antilles near 16N61W. A fresh SW breeze and showers extends 120 nm east of the boundary. The subtropical ridge extends SW from high pressure over the Iberian Peninsula to 17N40W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are observed south of the ridge, increasing to moderate to fresh and 7 to 9 ft seas west of 35W and south of 14N. For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure centered NE of the central Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through Sun. The high pressure will weaken and move east Sun evening ahead of a strong cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front Sat night, increasing to near gale force speeds Sun and continuing through Mon morning. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas by mid-week. $$ AReinhart