000 AXNT20 KNHC 291007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Dec 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front reaching from the Azores to northeast of the Leeward Islands near 20N60W will stall and dissipate west of 35W through tonight. A second, reinforcing cold front moving across the north central Atlantic will move across the waters north of 25N and east of 50W through Thu night, accompanied by winds to minimal gale force near 31N35W Thu afternoon. Large seas to 20 ft will also accompany the front in NW swell, with reinforcing swell to 8 ft reaching as far south as 22N west of 55W through Thu night. Winds will diminish through Fri as the front stalls along 27N. Seas to 12 ft will linger through Fri north of 22N between 35W and 55W. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure centered east of the Bahamas will build through Fri, support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea through Sun, with winds pulsing to minimal gale force off Colombia Thu night, with seas to 11 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra-Leone near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to the coast of NE Brazil near 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 22W and 26W, and 04N to 06N between 43W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is support moderate to fresh SE to S winds with 5 to 7 ft seas across most of the Gulf, except for 3 to 5 ft seas in the far eastern part of the basin. No fog, showers or thunderstorms are noted at this time. For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward, allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Thu as a weak frontal boundary stalls and dissipates along the Texas coast. Looking ahead, southeast to south winds are expected to increase over the western Gulf by late Fri as low pressure moves into the Central Plains. A strong cold front associated with this low pressure may reach the Texas coast late Sat night or early Sun before it quickly moves to the eastern Gulf late Sun. Gale-force winds are possible behind the front over the western Gulf from early Sun through Mon night, with strong to near gale-force winds elsewhere across the area in the wake of the front. Seas are expected to quickly build behind the front as well. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... 1021 mb high pressure centered north of the area north of Puerto Rico is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with 5 to 7 ft seas, possibly reaching 8 ft off Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft are observed. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. For the forecast, the high pressure north of Puerto Rico will strengthen through Thu and continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across mainly the central Caribbean through Sat, with minimal gale force winds off Colombia Thu night. The high pressure will weaken over the weekend allowing for the fresh to strong trades to diminish in coverage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the gale warning in effect for the Atlantic. 1021 mb high pressure is building near 26N67W, following a cold front currently reaching from the Azores to near the Leeward Islands. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are prevalent west of 65W, except for moderate SW winds off northeast Florida and moderate to fresh E winds off Hispaniola. Fresh to strong W winds and 7 to 11 ft seas are noted north of 28N between 50W and 65W south of a low pressure area northeast of Bermuda. Elsewhere moderate to fresh NW winds and 10 to 14 ft seas in NW swell are noted north of 20N west of the front to 65W. South of 20N moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 8 ft seas in E swell are observed. Farther east, the subtropical ridge extends from the coast of Morocco to 20N35W. Fresh to strong SW winds and 12 to 16 ft are active within 300 nm east of the front, north of of the ridge. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft are evident elsewhere south of the ridge and east of 35W. For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure near 26N67W will strengthen through Sat. The high pressure will weaken and move east Sun ahead of a strong cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night. $$ Christensen