000
AXNT20 KNHC 282301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Dec 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A large area of deep low pressure dominates most of the Atlantic 
Ocean N of 30N and E of 60W. An associated cold front enters the 
forecast waters near 31N36W and continues SW to near 22N60W, then
WNW to 24N69W. The western part of the front is dissipating, and 
it is expected to transition to a shearline late tonight. Gale 
force SW winds are occurring within 90 nm SE of the front to the N
of 30N, where sea heights are 18-20 ft. Fresh to strong winds are
noted per satellite derived winds data on either side of the 
front mainly N of 27N. The front will move southward through Wed,
with gale force winds lifting NE of the area early this evening, when
the gale warning is forecast to expire. Seas will gradually 
subside accordingly, although 8 to 14 ft seas will persist north 
of 20N and east of 60W through tonight. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa along the coast of 
Liberia near 06N10.5W to 05.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N20W
to 03N46W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02N51W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02.5N to 05N between 10W and
32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1018 mb located E of Florida extends a ridge 
across Florida into the NE Gulf waters. The pressure gradient 
between this system and lower pressures over Texas supports 
moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and seas of 2-4 ft over 
the eastern half of the Gulf, and fresh to locally strong S winds 
with seas of 4-7 ft over the western half of the Gulf. Patches of
low level moisture are moving N across parts of Gulf under a 
southerly wind flow. 

The ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf will 
support moderate to fresh winds across the central and western 
Gulf through Wed. The ridge will then shift eastward, allowing 
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the 
entire basin Thu as a weak frontal boundary stalls and dissipates 
along the Texas coast. Looking ahead, southeast to south winds are
expected to increase over the western Gulf by late Fri as low 
pressure moves into the Central Plains. A strong cold front 
associated with this low pressure may reach the Texas coast late 
Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure of 1018 mb situated E of Florida dominates the 
pattern across the Caribbean Sea. Late morning scatterometer 
passes indicated fresh to strong NE winds with seas of 7 to 9 ft 
off the coast of Colombia, with moderate to locally fresh trades 
and seas of 5-7 ft across the remainder of the south-central 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades prevail with seas of 
3-5 ft. 

A surface trough is analyzed over the Leeward Islands. Patches of
low level clouds with widely scattered weak showers are near the 
trough axis affecting the NE Caribbean. This area of moisture will
move westward over the eastern Caribbean through Wed. Elsewhere, 
low-topped trade wind showers are noted.

High pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea near the NW Bahamas 
will strengthen through Thu, supporting fresh to strong trade 
winds across mainly the central Caribbean through Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
the Gale Warning in the Atlantic, forecast to expire at 00Z.

High pressure is building over the waters west of 65W in the wake
of the above mentioned cold front moving over the central Atlantic.
This is supporting mainly light to gentle winds, with the exception
of gentle to moderate winds S of 22N. Farther east, the Atlantic 
ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near Morocco, 
southwestward to 19N40W, supporting light to gentle winds along 
the ridge axis. Moderate trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft 
prevail across the tropical Atlantic south of the ridge axis. 

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure currently located E of
Florida will shift eastward and strengthen northeast of the Bahamas
through Sat. This will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds
across the Atlantic S of 22N W of 70W including Approaches to the
Windward Passage.

$$
Stripling